Thread by @ArmineYalnizyan

Surprised by job gains? The re-opening was well under way two weeks ago.

Twice as much job gains for men (+206K jobs) than women (+84K).
Goods producing increases>services
The she-cession continues.
The he-covery begins.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…
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Women with young kids (<6) less likely to get back to work than women with kids 6-17. Women with kids in both age groups less likely to get back to work than men with kids in same age groups.

No recovery without a shecovery
No shecovery without childcare
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For recent immigrants (< 5 years here) ~no job recovery.
Employment is down 22.6% from February levels. (not seasonally adjusted)
Immigrants who have been here longer saw 2.2% gain in jobs since last month. Their employment is down 15.1% since Feb, like for most Canadians

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Students are screwed.

Returning students aged 20 to 24 saw unemployment balloon from 10.8% in May 2019 to 42.1% in May 2020.
1/3 had jobs lined up for summer. Gone due to Covid.
1/2 worry about paying for tuition, increasing student debt, paying for current expenses.
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1/3 (34.5%) of unemployed households are having difficulty meeting financial obligations. (18% of the employed, 28% of those who lost 1/2 or more of usual
hours but were still working)
Only 33.4% of households in financial difficulty (working age) applied for CERB, EI >Mar15
/6

Low-wage jobs rebounding, but with fewer hours.

"In May, 24.3% of all low-wage workers worked less than 50% of their usual hours, compared with 9.6% for all other paid employees."
Bigger gains for men than women in recovering hours of paid work among low-paid workers

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Compared to last May, we've got 500K fewer goods producing jobs (manufacturing, agriculture, forestry, mining, construction, utilities) and over 2M fewer service sector jobs. Accommodation and food services down the most, by 539K jobs.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

/7

Only sector of the economy with more workers than this time last year: FIRE (Finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing), up by 16.2K workers.

110.8K fewer people self-employed, (48K women = 43%)
2.465M fewer people employed. (1.366M women - 55%)

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While Ontario accounts for about 40% of all the job losses (roughly in line with its share of population), it accounts for 62% of all the loss of employment among the self-employed, and 52% of all the losses in public sector employment since last May.

/9

Quebec, the province hardest hit by Covid, saw most classes of work- employees and self-employed, public and private - decline by ~20% (roughly in line with its share of the population). However, public sector jobs fell by a little less, 16% compared to last year.

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BC was third hardest hit by Covid. Its share of declines in the job market are also roughly proportional to their population, with one exception: public sector employment is up ~3% from this time last year.

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Compared to a year ago, there are 12.9% fewer permanent employees, but a whopping 30.4% fewer temporary workers.
(Watch for rebounds in this category as the re-opening proceeds. Every recession is followed by an up-tick in demand for just-in-time/on-demand labour)

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Temporary employment (seasonal, contract, casual, other) was 10.8% of the job market in mid-May.
This is down from 13.1% last May and 14.2% May 2018.
(Only employees. Does not incl self-employed.)
(NOTE: includes but isn't = to gig work, which StatCan doesn't really measure)
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The number of workers with union coverage fell by about 7.8% compared to last year.
But there were 18.4% fewer workers in the unorganized sector.
This is largely related to the relative resilience/need for the public sector. Essential Services = The Essential Economy
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Data about union coverage and temporariness or permanence of work found here: www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/cv.…

Again, just for employees, not self-employed/gig workers.

/15

An interesting deet about the LFS (sample size: 56K households www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/71-543-… but doesn't reach most temporary foreign workers and who knows who else) 68% of interviews were done by phone, 32% online.
Good thing? Bad? I dunno.
But, winding up, here's a GREAT thing.
/16

Underutilization of Canada's labour potential is a new analytic concept by @StatCan_eng. Super important (like industrial capacity).
Despite job gains, "In May, more than one-third (34.8%) of the potential labour force was fully or partially underutilized" (was 11.9% in Feb).
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Last tweet:
You know what's not in this, again, remarkable and thorough analysis of how the labour market is evolving? (kudos, @StatCan_eng!)
Income loss/volatility. Kinda important, no?
Follow @DIGoldfarb for more insights. Start here: macleans.ca/economy/econom…

Stay safe!

https://twitter.com/ArmineYalnizyan/status/1268892950253232130