Thread by @EntStrategyGuy

Thread: On TV production timelines

For broadcast, cable and streaming

In an age of coronavirus.

Why? To understand the delays caused by coronavirus shut downs, this is what basically impacts everything.

1/ As I’ve said before, in a previous life I did a LOT of content planning for a streamer. One of the things meant understanding when we clicked “Go” on a scripted series when it would come to air.

This is the rule of thumb I used for calendar planning. Like years out.

2/ Since everything has been shut down for coronavirus, it’s key to understanding this calendar to understand how long until we get new scripted programming. And the different between binge vs weekly.

3/ So here it is:

X Weeks - Writing
6 Weeks - Pre-production
1-2 Weeks - Shooting (5 biz days for half hour; 10 for dramas. Single cam)
4-6 Weeks - Editing
4 Weeks - Post Production

4/ Are these set in stone? Absolutely not. Some mumblecore films can go way quicker. GoT and other tentpoles can go way longer.

(Tyler Perry is shooting 22 episodes in 2 weeks. That’s insanity that only he can do because he’s a true genius/visionary. My respect for him is off the charts. Not just for this but his whole approach/strategy.)

5/ For instance, in a pinch everyone says they can do editing in 4 weeks. But they often go longer. Or pre-production. You can try to cut corners, but it ends up taking what it takes.

6/ Also, this is for 1 episode of TV. That’s important. Many steps are conducted simultaneously. Like pre-production, editing and post production. Meaning they overlap. For seasons, you need to factor the number of episodes in and the length of the episode.

7/ Key, though, is shooting cannot be “overlapped”. Meaning if you have a ten episode, single cam drama, that’s 20 weeks of shooting. Minimum. With likely a 1 week break midway through.

8/ How will this impact coronavirus? Well this is why you already see fall seasons getting pushed back. If production doesn’t start this month—and it looks unclear if it will—then you’re talking July. And that may only be half hour comedies that can be shot in doors.

9/ Which means four and a half months until an episode can go up. Which means end of November. Which is when broadcast networks don’t want to premiere shows.

10/ Especially if you want everything to launch simultaneously. Then, inevitably something will be delayed.

Using the old operations analysis/binomial distribution, if every show has a 10% chance of delay, the odds of a delay aren't 10%, they're above 65%.

11/ So if you’re making 12 shows, it’s unlikely each stays on this schedule. Hence slack in the system. (And why fall shows usually start shooting pilots in the spring, then go to production quickly.)

12/ This math is why most broadcasters are planning a January return.

(Except for CBS, which is NOT planning for simultaneous distribution.)

13/ This also makes sense because while everyone is making work from home “work”, it isn’t the same. At some point, everyone will need to get offices back up and running, scout things in person, implement new procedures and what not. That will take extra time.

14/ Hence why even if shows get a green light to return too hooting in June, most studios will be cautious. Again, the January tentative "Fall" launch.

15/ Now on to streaming. Of the steps above, the ones that can’t be done simultaneously (parallel path processing if you’re getting super MS/OR about it) is shooting.

Actors can’t be duplicated in time. (Even Netflix hasn’t hacked that yet.)

16/ Meaning, if you’re releasing every show simultaneously, you have to wait until all the episodes are finished. Which basically means when episode 10 is finished.

17/ Ergo your four and a half months schedule for one episode is (roughly) expanded by the number of episodes in a season multiplied by one or two weeks.

18/ A 13 episode season takes, then, about 24 extra weeks to finish if it's released binge style compared to its broadcast equivalent.

19/ Plus, Netflix and Amazon have to dub and subtitle all the episodes. That’s NOT in my schedule above and takes extra time. However, both have worked really hard to bring that timing down. (And some of it can be done while early episodes are being finished.)

20/ What does this mean for both the big streamers?

Uh, nothing. They'll be delayed as long as the broadcasters. Which is the period of time of the lock down.

21/ Likely they had some episodes already shot, but they’re delayed at the same rate. So if we’ll be 3-4 months late for broadcast shows, we’ll be delayed the same for big streamers.

(They don’t have any technology secret to hack this.)

22/ The one caveat is Netflix has repeatedly emphasized some local originals are starting. Which is fine, and a handful or so may be back sooner.

23/ However, from an American-centric perspective, English language content still rules the day. More, English language content produced in America rules the day. That hasn’t changed.

24/ In fact, I just heard Amazon's Mike Hopkins admit that their data says that local originals rule local markets.

(I can and will write an article on why this refutes one of Netflix's core pillars of size providing cost efficiency.)

25/ Caveats! (Because I'm not perfect or all knowing.)

My calendar isn’t science or locked in stone. It was my “back fo the envelope” guide to plan say 25 scripted shows launching over a year.

26/ I needed a place holder that would be refined by production when specific shows started shooting/submitted production plans.

It also is optimized for half hour and one hour SCRIPTED series. Reality can rapidly accelerate this timeline. Animation? A whole other ball game.

27/ Also, writing is a huge variable because--as a writer I can say this--we can be awful at timelines and deadlines. That can delay everything.

28/ Which is why if a streamer takes a month or so to green light a new show, and the writers delay starting writing, then a new season on streaming usually takes 14-18 months to return.

29/ This is also why you see more and more "half season" binges. If you follow my logic, you see that it means you can return new content that much faster.

30/ Caveat, I also didn't work in multi-cam, though I understand it is roughly the same 5 day/10 day schedule. But as a streamer, we weren't making any at the time.

Check out my latest column, which was the inspiration for this thread:

entertainmentstrategyguy.com/2020/06/05/mos…