THREAD: Let me tell you a story about federal reports and media laziness from 2014. 1/
Back during the first, batshit crazy ACA open enrollment period, there was tremendous pressure on the Obama Administration to hit the “magic number” of 7 million exchange enrollees due to an offhand comment by then HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius. 2/
When the February 2014 enrollment report came out, there were a bunch of headlines claiming enrollment was cratering because it was smaller than the January enrollment number. 2/
Now, the obvious problem with this is that February is 3 days shorter than January...or 10% shorter. Every reporter who missed this was a bonehead.
However, it was worse than that. 3/
However, it was worse than that. 3/
You see, the “December 2013” report wasn’t actually for December 1st - December 31st. For whatever reason, at the time, ASPE (the Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation) was running the Open Enrollment reports based on CALENDAR WEEKS, meaning that the monthly reports... 4/
...ran from Sunday - Saturday. That meant that the December report ended as of December 28th, and the January report ran from December 29th - February 1st.
That’s right...the Jan report included 5 full weeks vs. the February reports 4 weeks. 5/
That’s right...the Jan report included 5 full weeks vs. the February reports 4 weeks. 5/
Now, a casual reader might be forgiven for assuming that the reports covered 31 and 28 days, but the reports clearly stated their start and end dates.
The February report was *20%* shorter. It turned out that MORE people had enrolled per day in February than January. 6/
The February report was *20%* shorter. It turned out that MORE people had enrolled per day in February than January. 6/
Point being, always read the fine print.
Which isn’t to say BLS didn’t actually screw up here...I haven’t read the article yet.
Which isn’t to say BLS didn’t actually screw up here...I haven’t read the article yet.
As an aside, that “7 million” figure which EVERYONE obsessed over at the time came about because Sebelius, in promoting the ACA just before the first open enrollment period started, was asked in an interview “what success would look like”. /8
She responded (foolishly in my opinion) that “success looks like 7 million people enrolling by March 31st”. Suddenly, if only 6,999,999 people did so, Obamacare was somehow DOOOOOOMED! 9/
So where did the 7 million figure come from? Well, the previous May of 2013, the CBO had put out a report estimating how many people they figured were likely to enroll during the first open enrollment period. They estimated perhaps 7 million would. 10/
The CBO didn’t say 7 million HAD to enroll for the law to be successful...they just had to have sone idea of how much federal money would be spent on ACA subsidies in 2014, so they had to estimate how many they figured would enroll. There was no magic number they HAD to hit. 11/
But the moment “7M by 3/31” escaped Sebelius’ lips, it was written in stone: 7 million or the law was apparently dead meat.
As it happens, they DID hit 7 million by 3/31 and actually broke 8.0 million by the end of the 2-week “overtime” period tacked onto the end. 12/
As it happens, they DID hit 7 million by 3/31 and actually broke 8.0 million by the end of the 2-week “overtime” period tacked onto the end. 12/
However, here’s the punchline: What the CBO report had actually estimated WASN’T how many would sign up by 3/31, but the AVERAGE number who would be fully ENROLLED for each month of 2014.
That number ended up being lower...around 5.5 million on average...with good reason. 13/
That number ended up being lower...around 5.5 million on average...with good reason. 13/
The main reason was because due to the early technical problems with HealthCareGov, a good 40% of 2014 enrollees didn’t actually have their coverage kick in until April or May...meaning the monthly average for all 12 months was bound to be much lower. 14/END
