Since China is bent on trying to create an impression that its terrocotta warriors are ready for high altitude battle, perhaps it is time to talk about an imaginary table top exercise some military enthusiasts have authored and played out in their minds
Not long ago, in 2018, they held a table-top exercise painting a likely scenario along the Northern Frontier. Both the Northern and Eastern Commands were made to assume the role of Blueland (India). The 'Yellowland (China)' was depicted by the Army Training Command (ARTRAC)
Built into the scenario was the possibility of multiple Yellowland probing along the India-China border under an overhang of a global crisis (the nature of the crisis was not specified). It was assumed that major global powers would be distracted and India would also be affected
On the 1st day of the exercise, Blueland forces got busy in countering multiple moves along the border by Yellowland: attempted intrusion in Arunachal Pradesh; a provocation in Sikkim; helicopters coming closer to the border in Uttarakhand and substantial build up opposite Ladakh
Added to the mix was a natural disaster to India's east and a crisis in a fictitious Indian Ocean country, keeping Indian decision-makers busy in organising HADR as well as rushing help in the form of substantial elements of India's only Para brigade to that country in the IOR!
So how did Blueland deal with the crisis? Realising that Yellowland strategy was to tire out Indian forces by triggering multiple mini-crises, Blueland's military leaders played it smart: They just ordered forward posturing by existing forces closer to the LAC in respective zones
So in Northern Command, brigades normally positioned in depth got deployed closer to the border; armour regiments carried out visible manouvres; In Eastern Command, elements of the Mountain Strike Corps moved to their Operational locations; The message was more than loud
Reserve brigades, stationed in the plains of Punjab and Himchal Pradesh and in West Bengal and Assam, were airlifted, accalamatised and deployed by turns. In short, a massive display of force was evident. The result: Redland, after an assumed lapse of three weeks, sought talks
The Yellowland tactic was by now familiar to Blueland: Show aggression and test resolve of the adversary. If the adversary didn't buckle, offer talks; appear reasonable in the negotiations. After prolonged negotiations, restore status quo ante. Rinse. Repeat.
The authors of the war game concluded that Yellowland would employ these tactics twice or thrice before launching a massive strike two-three years after the first probe but only after assessing if the risk in taking on the Blueland adversary was worth it.
Cut to 2020. Any resemblance to current events across the globe, and along India's northern borders is purely coincidental
In the 8th tweet, for Redland please read Yellowland
