Thread by @Craig_A_Spencer

The protests against racial injustice taking place all across the country are occurring at the same time many places are starting to open up (including in NYC).

And lots of people are wondering what that means for #COVID19 case numbers in the next few weeks.

So let's discuss...

We should first start by taking stock of where we are now:

We've already had over 2 MILLION cases in the US.

We STILL have ~20,000 new #COVID19 cases per day (and have since end-March).

And we also continue to have ~1,000 new COVID19 deaths per day.

These are MASSIVE numbers.

There is still transmission all throughout the country.

Right now, case numbers are INCREASING in 20 states + Puerto Rico.

The curves for Arizona, the Carolinas, Arkansas and Utah are particularly worrisome.

In addition, case numbers in 12 states + Guam are 'mostly the same'.

So, what about about going forward?

Will the protests result in more #COVID19 cases? Yes.

Will it be a blip, a bump, or a bigger rise? We don't know.

Being outdoors & wearing masks (as most protesters seemingly have been) definitely helps to decrease the risk of transmission.

But being close together - regardless of mask wearing - carries an increased risk. We just don't know HOW MUCH yet.

In addition, the use of tear gas & holding arrested protesters in small holding cells will also contribute to ⬆️ transmission (and those actions should stop).

The incubation period for COVID19 is 2-14 days (average of 5 days).

So if there will be an increase, we should start seeing it soon.

However, it's possible that many of these infections will be asymptomatic, but they can still cause infections amongst close friends or family.

This 'secondary transmission' may be delayed. So, if we don't see an increase in the next few days, it doesn't mean there weren't new infections.

Regardless, protesters know the risk. They (and I) strongly believe that addressing 400 yrs of racial injustice is worth the risk...

...even if it has to be done in the middle of a pandemic.

A pandemic which has already hit minority communities, especially Black communities, extremely hard.

See 👇explainer from NPR:

Knowing there's ⬆️ risk, I recommend anyone protesting gets tested. And if you're having symptoms, you should quarantine yourself.

If possible, try to limit contact with loved ones who aren't joining you in the streets.

Looking for a testing site? 👇

bit.ly/3792cNS

So if we see a rise in cases soon, its definitely all from protesters, right?!

No.

Seeing throngs of people protesting racial injustice & police brutality have apparently convinced many that social distancing doesn't matter anymore.

Cue Las Vegas:

In that video from a casino, there isn't a single mask. No Plexiglas. No social distancing.

Nothing that makes you think this video wasn't taken 1 year ago, not 1 day ago.

Will this behavior lead to more cases? Absolutely.

More than caused by the protests?

Right now, we don't know for sure.

But I certainly worry way more about a bunch of people indoors, with no physical distancing, and without masks.

Based on everything we've learned over the past few months, THIS seems to be a much greater risk.

BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY!!!!!!!!!!!!!:

The reality is that we shouldn't be months into this and still so worried about which is the greater risk!!!

The only reason we are is because we're still crippled by our earlier failures to respond to #COVID19.

Our horribly delayed response, lack of strong federal leadership, and early testing debacles have had long-term impacts.

Just look at this sad, sad graph.

We're stuck at a plateau. For months.

As almost all the other early hard-hit countries have peaked and declined.

The reason we're even discussing whether protests can spread the virus or whether it's safe to reopen restaurants and casinos is because WE FAILED AT THE OUTSET.

There is no other reason we have so much virus circulating in our communities.

It's very clear that if cases go up in the next few weeks, @realDonaldTrump will absolutely not blame the casinos or the people at slot machines or the all-you-can-eat buffets for the increase.

This administration will pin all the blame on protestors.

But it isn't their fault.

This administration is to blame. They have let us down. All of us. The protestors. The people in casinos. Everyone who is still at increased risk. Which is all of us.

Our delayed & imperfect response at the outset means we will be living with #COVID19 for the foreseeable future.

But we can take action.

Regardless of where and why COVID19 is spreading in the coming weeks and months, we need to have a strong response based on the core public health principles:

1: TESTING
2: ISOLATION
3: FINDING (contact tracing)

bit.ly/3cIXPua

Regardless where you are in the country or whether the injustices of racism & police brutality have forced you to the streets in protest, know that as Americans, we're ALL still at high risk.

Wear a mask. Socially distance when you can. Be safe.

We still have a long way to go.