Funny how your question made me hesitate, even though it should be straight forward. I don't want to appear to diminish the #blacklivesmatter cause. Also, many friends/patients went to protests, and don't like telling them what they 'should' do.
But fuck it I'll answer directly:
But fuck it I'll answer directly:
On a factual level, transmission among protesters is very plausible. The number infected on Sat could've been small. Or a lot. We don't know and it's hard to estimate. But 'a lot' is plausible. So if everyone self-isolates, we COULD prevent a huge number of downstream infections.
So, should people who attended the protests self isolate? If the aim is to reduce the RISK of large rise in cases, then the answer is absolutely a hard yes. But..
How big is this risk? Well, everyone used masks, sanitiser, kept distance, and we have low background rate of community transmission. Plus it was outdoors. Then again it was a shitload of people. So how big's the risk? We don't know. We have no modelling for this unique scenario
I think this is part of the reason why docs are holding their tongue. We don't know how effective the intervention (self-isolating) is likely to be for this scenario. It's also why people probably won't listen. Not even to VACCHO (Vic Aboriginal Community Coord Health Org). So:
14 days self-isolation after protests is undebatably ideal. Most won't do it. But, if people self-isolate for even for just FIVE DAYS (mean incubation period for #covid19) that could be really powerful. Could. Or not. Because we're talking about unquantified risks.
Again, to answer directly, yes, people should isolate for 14 days. But in the face of uncertainty, I doubt people can/will practice this. So instead of focusing primarily on asking everyone to isolate, I'm mainly asking:
People who attended #blacklivesmatteraustralia should be VERY alert to symptoms, & if they develop, isolate immediately, get tested ASAP. Avoid people as much as you can for 14 days, esp gatherings. Self-isolating for 14 days is the gold standard. But every little bit could help.
@natalietran done.
