(2/9)
Countries recording 2nd highest number of cases in last 24 hours :
Chile (3.97)
Bolivia (2.2)
The bracketed number is the number of tests performed per confirmed case, as recorded by 'Our World in Data'
(3/9)
To place the level of testing by these nations in context, the UK is recorded as having 46.92 tests per confirmed case, as of 8th June.
As a whole, yesterday the world recorded its highest number of daily Covid cases to date, at 134,705
(4/9)
Clearly the above nations aren't testing enough and if they did, then the true number of world cases would rise significantly.
India as an example, still only testing 100k per day but daily confirmed cases up to over 12,000
(5/9)
In the US a number of states have very recently seeing a surge in cases. One of them is Arizona, a county that has also experienced a heat wave, with temperatures over 90 degrees of late.
Same temperature issue can be said of India, Mexico, Bangledesh, S. Arabia
(6/9)
So where is the true rest bite from Covid cases when the sun starts to shine?
As posted yesterday, Covid is now expanding in countries that cannot drive measures as strongly as Europe could and so its effects are more startling, be it hidden right now.
(7/9)
Will these countries increase their testing regimes, if given the chance?
Well Mexico City has just announced a programme to increase testing, which goes against the Fed government's position of it being a waste of resources.
Will others follow? Who knows?
(8/9)
However, that's not the point. The point is how does the world rid itself of Covid quickly, when so many poorer countries have such a clear widespread problem with the virus and cannot control their outbreaks.
To date, heat is not doing the job.
(9/9)
So how long can places like Europe shut itself off from these parts of the world? How does Europe protect itself from further outbreaks, if Covid is so embedded in the world?
For me its testing and lots of it and for a sustained period.
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1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/ Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.
Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/ Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.
It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
1/9 In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/ Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.
So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/ Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.
At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.
1/7 Based on what I have just talked about if #HMI had received all the monies from its sales in 2021 then this would have amounted to $4.52m and the business would have been profitable at the operating level in 2021.
2/ What's more, the $4.454m paid out in 2021 reflects more accurately the true costs to run the business over the course of one year.
One cannot conclude exactly how much HMI produced in 2021 because the cash receipts reflect payment dates and not when the goods were received.
3/ Inventory was fairly minimal which reflects an operation that leans towards producing to order.
However, the costs associated with administration clearly eat up the vast majority of this with the consolidated statement accounting for c. $3.85m in the period.