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Jun 11, 2020 9 tweets 2 min read Read on X
(1/9)
Countries recording highest number of new Covid cases to date (last 24 hours). Source Worldometer.

Pakistan (4.78)
Mexico (1.16)
S.Arabia (7.92)
India (13.99)
Bangladesh (4.87)
Argentina (5.57)
Brazil (NA)

#AVCT #GDR
(2/9)
Countries recording 2nd highest number of cases in last 24 hours :

Chile (3.97)
Bolivia (2.2)

The bracketed number is the number of tests performed per confirmed case, as recorded by 'Our World in Data'
(3/9)
To place the level of testing by these nations in context, the UK is recorded as having 46.92 tests per confirmed case, as of 8th June.

As a whole, yesterday the world recorded its highest number of daily Covid cases to date, at 134,705
(4/9)

Clearly the above nations aren't testing enough and if they did, then the true number of world cases would rise significantly.

India as an example, still only testing 100k per day but daily confirmed cases up to over 12,000
(5/9)

In the US a number of states have very recently seeing a surge in cases. One of them is Arizona, a county that has also experienced a heat wave, with temperatures over 90 degrees of late.

Same temperature issue can be said of India, Mexico, Bangledesh, S. Arabia
(6/9)

So where is the true rest bite from Covid cases when the sun starts to shine?

As posted yesterday, Covid is now expanding in countries that cannot drive measures as strongly as Europe could and so its effects are more startling, be it hidden right now.
(7/9)

Will these countries increase their testing regimes, if given the chance?

Well Mexico City has just announced a programme to increase testing, which goes against the Fed government's position of it being a waste of resources.

Will others follow? Who knows?
(8/9)

However, that's not the point. The point is how does the world rid itself of Covid quickly, when so many poorer countries have such a clear widespread problem with the virus and cannot control their outbreaks.

To date, heat is not doing the job.
(9/9)
So how long can places like Europe shut itself off from these parts of the world? How does Europe protect itself from further outbreaks, if Covid is so embedded in the world?

For me its testing and lots of it and for a sustained period.

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More from @BigBiteNow

Oct 7
1/16
I've been doing some detailed research on #STX and found something important.

With scrips growth now back on track and net pricing expanding the 2 biggest risks I could find were working capital to breakeven and a covenant breach on the SWK financing.
2/
The $5.7m AOP Milestone Monetisation + the $10m Sallyport invoice factoring facility are stated by the broker as delivering them to +cash flows by H2 2025.

The same message is coming from the company although I could imagine a small amount of additional equity in 2025.
3/
The numbers say this would be small (c. $5m) and could well be in the form of a further expansion to the Sallport facility as expanding revenues allow it.

That then leaves the SWK finance covenants.

They are based on quarterly rolling group revenues up until Q2 2025. Image
Read 16 tweets
Apr 4
1/23
I've been studying the #THX Segilola remaining mine life and found some interesting details.

First of all, here is the independently calculated mine plan as it stood in 2021.

Note the mineable ore was calculated at just $1,600 gold.
Image
2/
A total of 501,800 ozs of payable gold was expected at 97% recovery from 518,000 oz of contained gold.

To date, recoveries, since operations began, have been averaging c. 94.4%.

At that rate, Segilola will deliver 489,000 oz over its current mine life. Image
3/
Up to the end of 2023, the mine has produced 192,503 oz and sold 179,138 oz.

This means 13,365 oz sit in inventory as of 1st Jan 2024 with a current value at $2,100/oz of c. $28m.

What this also means is that Segilola still has 296,497 oz of gold to produce.
Read 24 tweets
Jul 22, 2022
1/16
It's difficult to call this market but my view is that assuming no more operational glitches #TGR now steadily re-rates as the operations sign off the various stages to 30ktpa.
2/
Front-end valuations should depend on where graphite prices go but as Syrah demonstrated yesterday (graphite fines not large flake) orders are buoyant.

Forward orders there running at 90,000 tons which are 50% of their current yearly output. So substantial.
3/
Note also Syrah cannot produce for less than FOB C1 $543/t even at 15,000 tons per month output and that's fines.

It is clear after last night's presentation that TGR C1 costs have also risen but this is to be expected in this current market.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
1/12
Here are Verde Agritech's expected sales targets for 2022 which were revised in May and offer a significant read across to #HMI and what it can achieve this year and also.
2/
Note the 43% jump in forecast 2022 sales but that all of this rise is due to significant increases in Q3 and Q4 sales projections.

In fact, Q1/Q2 should actually deliver slightly less than was forecast originally.
3/
This forecast was adjusted on 3rd May and the Q3/Q4 forecasts are based on "committed orders and projected orders." Just like with HMI.

Verde sees itself delivering c. 62% more product in Q3 than originally projected on 10th Jan 2022. So inside 4 months.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/9
In a previous #HMI thread, I highlighted that the $600k write-down in the FY2021 accounts meant that trade debtors (so effectively trade receivables) almost doubled between YE 2020 and YE 2021.

$924k vs $1.824m
2/
Due to the way HMI's business cycle runs this is a theme that compounds as sales expand along with prices.

Meaning that if investors simply concentrate on cash on hand then they are misunderstanding how the business operates.
3/
This is can be proven by simply reviewing the Verde Agritech quarterly accounts once more.

For revenues Verde count the full price including freight which indicates that they are responsible for this. Unlike HMI which sells at the gate.
Read 9 tweets
Jul 20, 2022
1/18
I've been running an extensive exercise on Verde Agritech also a relatively new but expanding fertiliser producer based just c. 70km from #HMI in Minas Gervais in Brazil. The results to date are rather fascinating and certainly worthy of review.
2/
Verde is a TSX-listed producer with a current plant capacity nearly double the size of HMI (0.6Mtpy) but with a phase 2 expansion due to come online in 2023 which would take output to 2.4Mtpy.

So a much bigger operation to come and soon.
3/
Those that remember my 5th July numbers on #HMI sales prices will perhaps remember that they demonstrated a $53.20/t average sale price for 2021.

At the average achieved AUD/BRL for 2021 of 4.054, this equated to an average price of BRL216.

Read 18 tweets

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