Not enough has been written about how the Dunning-Kruger effect is a self-fulfilled prophecy by the Thomas theorem:
1. Redefining mediocre as excellent
2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect
3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
1. Redefining mediocre as excellent
2. Creating a kakonomy (lemons ≻ peaches), with positive feedback loop & Matthew effect
3. Resulting in a race to the bottom
The Matthew effect, e.g. network effect, impedes beating the mediocre, e.g. blub paradox and market dynamics
The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
The peaches result not indistinguishable from the lemons but actually worse, possibly even "harbingers of failure", even at an axiological or first principles level
Differently from other multipolar traps, the main causes are epistemic and the strength of numbers; not a moral hazard. If there is a moral decision, it is beyond the comprehension of the mediocre majority
The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
The few peaches, irrelevant as they may be, face a complicated decision:
1 Accept their superiority, join the lemons, à la Planet of the Apes; soul draining
2 Compete: outnumbered, likely to be harbingers of their own failure
3 Find a blue ocean, unlikely to last, a Pyrrhic victory
4 Use or manipulate them; morally questionable, only success option
2 Compete: outnumbered, likely to be harbingers of their own failure
3 Find a blue ocean, unlikely to last, a Pyrrhic victory
4 Use or manipulate them; morally questionable, only success option
Of course I may be wrong in any of the things I wrote
As I said, I am interested in knowing more if someone has made a proper analysis and written about it
I am especially interested in formal proofs of theorems or effects then verified empirically with data
As I said, I am interested in knowing more if someone has made a proper analysis and written about it
I am especially interested in formal proofs of theorems or effects then verified empirically with data
If in fact not enough has been written, I am interested in knowing about the area of study that would consider this kind of problems, and how I could further investigate them
IMHO, the best area may be cybernetics, unfortunately it is transdisciplinary, and that hinders progress
IMHO, the best area may be cybernetics, unfortunately it is transdisciplinary, and that hinders progress
BTW: the emergence of the lemons-peaches dynamics, as well as the other mentioned effects, etc. may be inevitable from a general-evolution perspective; in a similarly unavoidable way may lead to a great filter
In a way, it would be like intelligence overshooting, then collapsing
In a way, it would be like intelligence overshooting, then collapsing
The epistemic nature makes the race to the bottom antifragile and exponential, being accelerated by the chaos itself causes
Anything to prevent this existential risk would be very valuable
But I am fully aware that the burden of proof is on my side, and I may be fooling myself
Anything to prevent this existential risk would be very valuable
But I am fully aware that the burden of proof is on my side, and I may be fooling myself
On a related note, simplicity weights more than truthfulness in a memetic competition
From a pragmatic perspective, a deadly red pill (see 4 previous options) would be not-true. The strong incentives to not study this would make it false, another self-fulfilled prophecy
From a pragmatic perspective, a deadly red pill (see 4 previous options) would be not-true. The strong incentives to not study this would make it false, another self-fulfilled prophecy
A friend said: "The largest apes group rules". That's only part of it
The memes with the most intolerant/powerful group of apes to reinforce/enforce them create reality, in many aspects
Markets and economy are two with many consequences at the same time
medium.com/incerto/the-mo…
The memes with the most intolerant/powerful group of apes to reinforce/enforce them create reality, in many aspects
Markets and economy are two with many consequences at the same time
medium.com/incerto/the-mo…
e.g. vim vs emacs war: opportunity cost of "them" getting traction, if you like x, you want x to win, z should not exist. Remember harbingers of failure
Root: tribal instincts. Memes use people to fight other memes. Winners may [not] reward its tribe, after people fighting died
Root: tribal instincts. Memes use people to fight other memes. Winners may [not] reward its tribe, after people fighting died
Someone said: "An artist tells people what they know before they realize it"
New "knowledge" is created unconsciously, mutating previous knowledge in a new context, surfaces to consciousness, fights to become true in the process and shape reality. Simple ideas more likely to win
New "knowledge" is created unconsciously, mutating previous knowledge in a new context, surfaces to consciousness, fights to become true in the process and shape reality. Simple ideas more likely to win
To some extent, multipolar traps otherwise avoidable are bootstrapped by this mechanism
- Could we have a CEO that's not an aggressive silverback?
- No, he would lose in the fights with the silverbacks of other companies. That's how business works!
- Could we have a CEO that's not an aggressive silverback?
- No, he would lose in the fights with the silverbacks of other companies. That's how business works!
