Myles McNulty Profile picture
Jun 12, 2020 8 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Fantastic interview from #SAE @simecatlantis CEO.

Two major value inflection points approaching:

1) at Uskmouth: results from fuel testing in Japan. If successful, the immediate TAM for SAE would essentially be limitless. 2,500 coal-fired power plants worldwide. A 200 MW... 1/8
...plant, once converted, would generate £40m+ (arguably closer to £60m) EBITDA pa for a further 20+ years. It would also burn more efficiently and more cleanly than it previously did, when coal-powered. Decom costs can be well over £10m - as such, there's a huge market for...2/8
#SAE to pick up end-of-life plants for next to nothing.

Moreover, as the operation is so reliable, 100% debt financing (conventional or receivables) for conversion capex could should be achievable.

Uskmouth will be the blue print for global rollout of the conversion. 3/8
2) at MeyGen: the UK gov itself has proposed a restructuring of the pots for the next round of CfDs (2021).

[In short, CfDs are governmental support (via buying electricity at higher prices) to encourage the development of renewable energy technologies.]

The gov is... 4/8
...proposing to take offshore (fixed) wind out of the pot that tidal power is in, and put it in a pot of its own. The rationale is to enable offshore (floating) wind and tidal to have a greater chance of winning the CfDs (i.e. revenue support).

The gov is now reviewing... 5/8
...the public's response to the proposal - but I would suggest that the gov proposed these measures in the first place precisely because of industry participants pushing for it.

Needless to say, a change in the CfD structure would open up massive support for #SAE's MeyGen. 6/8
The project lease has a further 392 MW of capacity to develop: with gov financial support, industrials and infrastructure funds would be much, much more interested in financing the development of MeyGen.

That whole process would itself lower the LCOE of tidal, validating... 7/8
..its commercial viability to the world.

To summarise, in the coming months #SAE could receive two items of news that would enable it to become a leading global player in 2 potentially vast markets, that are both highly topical.

2nd largest position, and I continue to add. 8/8

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More from @MylesMcNulty

Mar 30, 2023
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 This is where there is confusion amongst the #AVCT shareholder base.

Many think that the sell-off has been due to poor comms. That is not the case.

The sell-off has primarily been due to fear, driven by rumour (that of course has not been worded publicly), that @avacta...

1/9
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 @avacta ...is planning another major Diagnostic acquisition, that would result in further equity dilution.

There has been a concern that #AVCT has not been planning its capital allocation sensibly.

Rumour-mongering starting around SD of such a deal completely negated the epic...

2/9
@GarethP76 @Ophidian18 @RAH00084 @avacta ...data published at SD.

Mgmt has been under immense pressure from SHs in recent weeks to focus cash reserves on #AVCT Tx.

Through extensive conversations, my view is that they have listened. They are acutely aware that the value upside in Tx is of course infinitely...

3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jan 17, 2023
#AVCT's update today is without doubt the most significant RNS I have ever read, from any company.

Update note in the coming days, but here are some initial thoughts.

Firstly - what many want to hear - the SP at 155p (mkt cap £412m).

In my view, this will not last long. 1/20
There are many stale holders who have been underwater for 18+ months, who will be happy to take some cash out now, in this ongoing cost of living crisis. That is understandable.

There will also be traders exiting, having positioned for this update.

Furthermore, the...

2/20
...wider investment community has not yet heard of, and even more so not appreciated the significance of, today's news at #AVCT.

Finally, I will state with a high degree of confidence that today's RNS opens the floodgates for numerous more updates in the near future.

3/20
Read 20 tweets
Nov 18, 2022
Trading PF update:

Open:
#HARL (5.9p entry)
#PREM (0.45p)
#ALK (120p)
#MKA (13.3p)
#BSFA (8.6p)
#CGO (6.40p)
#BOIL (0.13p)

Closed:
#MMAG (+86%)
#INCE (flat)
#SPEC (+30%)

Reduced (not exited) HARL over past 24h, best return (% and £-wise) YTD.

[Entries/exits in timeline]

1/18
Volume returning really nicely to the small cap space, which is creating excellent trading conditions.

My average holding period in the Short-term Trading Portfolio is still around 16 sessions / 3 weeks.

Seemingly contrary to many, I consider trade entries based both on..

2/18
...fundamentals (see two recent successful trades in MMAG and SPEC, with rationales for trades founded on earnings metrics), and on stories and associated sentiment (BSFA being most recent example).

I don't subscribe to only utilizing one or the other; the same way as I...

3/18
Read 18 tweets
Sep 6, 2022
@AnEarlofWisdom Hi Earl, I can't see any of the posts, as I'm blocked by those accounts (or I've blocked!), but I've been told there's a lot of scaremongering about various things:

1) Delay in trial;
2) Dox not activating much in TME;
3) Low cash balance, and thus possible placing coming.

1/8
@AnEarlofWisdom On the contrary, except for Cohorts 1 and 2 taking longer than expected (due to patient withdrawals - nothing whatsoever to do with #AVA6000 itself), #AVCT's progress in 2022 could not be stronger.

The DE to 200mg/m2 was the ultimate target, so that nullifies point 2) ⬆️.

2/8
@AnEarlofWisdom Licensing deals for targeted oncology drugs - even those at pre-clinical stage, like 3996 - have been monstrous in recent times (e.g. $100m cash upfront for an antibody-drug conjugate, just last month ⬇️).

#AVCT has referenced...

3/8

fiercebiotech.com/biotech/gsk-be…
Read 8 tweets
Aug 24, 2022
Dare I say a major #AVCT rerate is (at last!) at hand?

Genuinely company-defining news could be landing over the coming weeks.

The question that is shortly to be answered:

Is @avacta's preCISION platform working in man?

If it is, the superheavyweights of Pharma move in.

1/8
I have said all I need to, on #AVCT's preCISION platform, here ⬇️:

Since that note, a third cohort has been launched in the AVA6000 trial, with a further considerable dose increase (+33%).

My view is that they stop here. The specificity of the...

2/8

aimchaos.files.wordpress.com/2022/04/avacta…
...substrate to FAP is so high that the concentration ratio of active doxorubicin in the tumour : healthy tissue, will negate the requirement for increase in dose size. [My view!]

Enough dox is already becoming active in the tumour micro-environment, at the current...

3/8
Read 8 tweets
Jul 8, 2022
Whilst many scream, "avoid loss-making growth stocks like the plague!" (e.g. #AVCT!)...

@Merck ponders a $40bn T/O of oncology-focussed biotech, @SeagenGlobal.

In 2021, Seagen made a loss of $0.67bn, on revs of $1.57bn.

'22 rev forecasts: ~$1.7bn.

1/6

reuters.com/markets/deals/…
$SGEN specializes in antibody-drug conjugates ('ADC') - a relatively novel form of targeted cancer treatment.

@avacta's targeted cancer treatment platform, preCISION, has the real potential of generating pro-chemotherapies that are MORE targeted than ADCs, and thus...

2/6
...also potentially capable of delivering a more potent drug payload.

#AVCT will be announcing the results of the first preCISION prodrug P1 trial (AVA6000) in the next few months.

Success will mean the platform could be used to modify many other existing chemotherapies.

3/6
Read 6 tweets

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