A thread about the '2 metre rule' and (as ever it seems) the general level of the public debate. (I take no view in the thread about what the 'correct' social distance might be.) 1/16
We hear from businesses, pubs, airlines etc that the 2 metre rule renders their recovery impossible. Theirs is not an opinion based on the science, but on a calculation of what they need to do in order to be able to generate profits. 2/16
They will push for a change in the law, seizing on all the scientific evidence which supports their case. They will be inclined to cut corners, so as to ensure that they are able to survive. 3/16
They have had to cope with lockdown. The furlough scheme is being wound down. They are trying to make profits and, in many cases, to safeguard jobs. 4/16
It is interesting that the debate in relation to schools is different. While there is an overwhelming educational and social reason for schools to reopen, there is no similar business case for them to do so. 5/16
They are more inclined to follow the letter of the rules. If that means that fewer year groups can attend school, and that even in those year groups, numbers per class are reduced, so be it. That's what the rules dictate. 6/16
The Govt's 'common sense' instinct is to let individual businesses decide, and trust them to be careful (and to stay alert). They want the economy to recover, and want businesses to do what they need to do to thrive (and cut all the red tape...). 7/16
All this suggests that the 2 metre rule will be relaxed. British exceptionalism may win the day - if it is slashed, surely it will be not to 1 metre, but to 1 yard.
And yet... the public health worry remains. 8/16
And yet... the public health worry remains. 8/16
What if we are moving too quickly? What if the R is too close to 1? Is there not a danger that too many changes are happening at once? 9/16
But... other countries (and the WTO) have opted for a lower distance. If it is good enough for them, surely it is also good enough for the UK? 10/16
And this is where the debate will likely end. The rule will be relaxed.
International comparisons, as we are sometimes reminded, are difficult. And, we, it seems, struggle to link various parts of the story. 11/16
International comparisons, as we are sometimes reminded, are difficult. And, we, it seems, struggle to link various parts of the story. 11/16
Countries with a less stringent distancing rule tend to have other parts of the defence against COVID-19 in place. They may have stricter rules on masks. They may - crucially - have an operational test and trace system. 12/16
One likely consequence of a move to a '1 yard rule' will be that people will be closer to others in a variety of new social settings. They will likely be closer to others who they do not know. 13/16
If infections occur, it will, with the existing test and trace system, simply be impossible to identify all one's contacts. And so, the virus will be able to spread. 14/16
To sum up...
The debate seems to be crystallising in a debate between those who prioritise health (2m), and those who prioritise the economy (1y). 15/16
The debate seems to be crystallising in a debate between those who prioritise health (2m), and those who prioritise the economy (1y). 15/16
In fact, it would be better cast as *part* of the debate about how to manage the virus. The better our virus defences - the infrastructure which we need the Govt to put in place - the more likely it is that the rule can be relaxed. 16/16
