As the debate over the Iran arms embargo heats up, I'm excited to share my latest for @IranPrimer, which takes a data-driven look at the Iranian defense budget and industry over the past two decades. A few highlights (1/5)
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/jun/…
iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/jun/…
Defense spending *increased* in 2020 vs 2019, contrary to US claims that sanctions have deprived Tehran of cash needed to fund repression at home and aggression abroad. Mil spending in 2019 was $18.4 bn and $20.5 bn in 2020 budget, by my calculations. Breakdown below: (2/5) 
Over past 2 decades, defense spending tracked closely with intensification of US sanctions. Note the significant declines between 2011/12 and 2015, per both IISS and SIPRI. (3/5)
I also address the impact of the arms embargo and the claims that Iran will go on an international arms buying spree in October 2020. Iran is more likely to purchase small numbers of advanced weapons systems and ensure the technology is transferred domestically. (4/5)
Finally, I compare Iran's defense spending with Saudi and Israel. Two highlights:
▪️ Only two other countries spent more of their GDP, proportionately, than Saudi Arabia: Oman and Afghanistan.
▪️ Iran and Israel spend very similar amounts of $ on their armies. (5/5)
▪️ Only two other countries spent more of their GDP, proportionately, than Saudi Arabia: Oman and Afghanistan.
▪️ Iran and Israel spend very similar amounts of $ on their armies. (5/5)
