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Thread / Rouhani's #UNGA speech this morning was constructive from a diplomatic point of view, and there were several new phrases (if not ideas) worth noting. But it's equally important not to get too carried away with the implications of what he said. 1/9
Disclaimer: as @laurnorman's reporting showed yesterday, there is much going on behind the scenes with the French. It's possible that portions of the speech validated (or refuted) elements of the secret talks. For the time being, we'll have to take the speech at face value. 2/9
Much attention has been placed on Rouhani's apparent endorsement of "more for more." This framework means very different things to different people, but the basic idea is that JCPOA could be a floor to multilateral diplomacy, not the ceiling. 3/9
Of course, this sentiment is not new. Iranian officials, formally and informally, have made this point consistently, but they've been vague about what their end of "more" would mean. Is it Zarif's rather flimsy proposal about the Additional Protocol? Or more, eg, regional? 4/9
My guess is that Tehran hasn't formally decided what "more" could mean, because they don't have to -- Trump is very unlikely to return to JCPOA, and there is a domestic political cost to outlining *even more* concessions to US, even if only in context of "more for more." 5/9
Moreover, Rouhani seemed to undercut the idea of a broader "more for more" immediately after, reminding Trump of his frequent comment that he only cares that Iran doesn't get nukes. Rouhani seemed to suggest: Let's just tweak JCPOA, take a picture, and call it a day. 6/9
Yet, Trump has been consistently inconsistent about what he wants from Iran--just nukes? Or nukes, terrorism, missiles, and regional? He has yet to settle on a demand. Tehran has perceived this as calculated perfidy, but it's more likely a symptom of the chaos of the USG. 7/9
Rouhani was, however, clear about one thing Iran is not willing to do now -- a photo op with Trump. He may have shown a smidgen more openness to a photo op *at some point* than Iran has shown before, but I think we're splitting a few too many hairs. 8/9
Finally, as for what this means for a Rouhani-Trump meeting in the waning hours of #UNGA, I could direct you to Khamenei's speech from last week...or just Rouhani's reaction to the urgings of Macron:
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