Thread by @ArmineYalnizyan

Another argument for boosting the economy from the bottom up.
Over 82% of all population growth in Canada came from newcomers in 1st quarter 2020.
www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/91-002-…
Will be sole source of labour force growth in <5 years.
Immigrants generally get paid the worst in Canada.

Newcomers come as immigrants (permanent residents) or migrants (temporary residents, mostly workers and students)
By 1st Q 2020, net increase in entries of temp residents fell 80% from previous year (mostly students)

Last highlight from this @StatCan_eng study:
People move from province to province allathetime, mostly looking for work.
"This is the first time in almost five years that Ontario has lost population due to interprovincial migration."

Ontario *needs* people. Treat them all well!

Why does Ontario/Canada need to treat people, especially its poorest workers well?
Economic growth, that every political and business leader says they want, is a factor of three things: Labour force growth, Productivity Growth, and Growth in Exports-Imports.

Export driven growth is not on the menu for the next while.
Productivity growth in Canada has flatlined since 2014, largely because of the collapse of oil prices.
That leaves labour force growth (Add people and stir, you get a bigger economy. Unless .....

Unless the source of labour force growth disappears. Falling fertility rates means less labour market entrants than exits (driven by demographics (rising retirement rates, combined with possibility of longer-term pandemic-related exits).
Shrinking, not growing, labour force. +

COPS (Canadian Occupational Projection System) forecasts that we run out of endogenous (made in Canada) labour force growth within next five years or so. (Pre Covid projections)
So bring in more immigrants, right?
Some political parties don't like that. COVID feeds into it.+

But without labour force growth we are looking at GDP decline, not growth.
There is little else to propel expansion.
Now, newcomers come in permanent and temporary forms, and we've become increasingly more reliant on the temporary labour/skills shortage fixes. +

Like *really* reliant on temporary foreign/migrant workers.
Like 3 temporary entrants to Canada for every permanent one.
(This is old, 2018. Roughly same in 2019.)
+

Why am I mentioning this?
Temporary workers (Canadian or foreign) get paid less than permanent workers, always.
Recent immigrants get paid less than Canadian-born workers, mostly.
Punchline coming up. +

If we don't want to see GDP stall, or fall - for reasons completely unrelated to Covid; a decades-long problem we'll have to deal with related to population aging - we need treat workers at the bottom better.

Pay them better.
And/or provide better publicly funded services.
+

We view "more money in your pocket" as strictly more pay, more income supports (or tax cuts) from gov't.
But when more costs of child care, pharmacare, dental care, vision care, public transit, more affordable housing, taken out of the equation, households have more $ to spend. +

Now, some people feel de-growth would be a good thing. Geez, people, really? Less money for everyone will mean especially less money for those who don't have enough now. And less collective resources to finance our quality of life re health care, education, etc. +

So, please understand, we can't hope to remain the 10th largest economy in the world without more newcomers.
Welcome newcomers, and treat 'em right.
Treat well all the workers who are essential to doing the work you don't want to, but let you do the things you want to do.
+

Punchline: if we reduce pay gaps between the poorest and the rest of us, and/or reduce costs of essentials for everyone, we'll boost the economy from the bottom up.
Or "get back to normal" and lose ground, together.
Our choice.
As COVID taught us, always our choice how we behave.