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Focus on REAL supply. so just look for dilution that can actually hit the open market. So:

-ATMs (my absolute fav)
-In the money or near the money warrants
-Convertible notes
-Convertible preferred
-Huge insider positions from prior PIPEs or pub offerings etc

#BearTipOfTheDay
And always remember that dilution should always be looked at relative to VOLUME. I see too many folks get excited over 1M shares worth of dilution (supply) while ignoring the 100M volume (demand). Dilution means nothing if there's more than enough volume to soak it all up.
But when u combine massive dilution with pussy volume, the stock has a 99.9% chance of being a all day fader. The only challenge now becomes finding borrows and most importantly, getting filled. B/c trust me, there'll be so much supply that u'll be lucky to fill half ur max size
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AllDayFaders
@team3dstocks
One of the most frustrating questions (not frustrating b/c of the question itself, but b/c of the sheer amount of times i have to answer it) is "what do u look for when u're tracking stocks/data etc'.

Guys, pls keep it simple. the goal of tracking is to simply find correlations
the goal of tracking/backtesting etc is to make up for the lack of experience.

So instead of trading 1000 times over the course of years, in order to figure out what works and what doesn't, data tracking simply allows u to do this without putting capital at risk.
so you simply build a database of thousands of stocks that fit the pattern/setup that u want to trade, and you simply look for correlations.

Example, i wanted to master shortselling, so I collected EVERY single lowfloat runner i could get my hands on, every squeeze, every fade
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AllDayFaders
@team3dstocks
That's not how an ATM works. Once the offering is approved (check the filings), and no restrictions are in place, they can raise money by dumping the shares at any time. They have to run the stock up premarket for 2 main reasons (there are more, but i ll just focus on the top 2)
1) higher stock price (via the premarket prop job & subsequent gap up) means less shares to dump. if stock is $1, u have to dump 10M shares just to raise $10M. that would CRUSH the stock. But if u can gap the stock to let's say $5, u only have to dump 2M shares to raise that $10M
2) 2nd reason they HAVE to gap it up premarket is for liquidity. u cant dump millions of shares on a shitty stock if there is no volume. So gap up = stock pops up on scanners = reels in amateur sheep who like to chase. Their buy orders provides the liquidity to unload the ATM
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AllDayFaders
@team3dstocks
Underwriters & manipulators use the same dirty tricks all the time. They dont need to change their tactics b/c most traders have been taught to ignore fundamentals anyway. examp if it's a big ATM & they're expecting low volume, 95% of the time they'll gap it up & dump at the open
So on those u wanna be early, with ur set risk levels, and not afraid to remove liquidity (slam the bid) or chances are u wont get filled at all. those are some of the best faders b/c its pure tankage right out of the gate, and many shorts are clogging the offers waiting for pops
In other scenarios, for examp if they're close to their freedom price, need to raise the baby shelf ceiling, or need to put warrants/converts in the money etc, 90% of the time they ll squeeze it higher first and try to close as high as possible. On those u DONT want to be early
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