Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #beartipoftheday

Most recents (7)

My minimum risk/reward goal is 3:1. My goal is 5:1 or higher. Under no circumstances do I want anything less than 2:1. in fact the only time I will settle w/ 2:1 is if im deep ITM & the stock cunts around, flashes too many exit signals, & hits my trailing stops.

That's why I dont give a shit about high winrate or being green everyday. I can stop out 3-5x in a row and make it all back plus more in just one trade. God forbid if i get lucky and win 3-5x in a row. almost impossible to give all those gains back even if u have a very bad week.
Remember, It is MUCH easier to manage risk and stop out quickly when you know that the amount you'll lose is NOTHING compared to your next win. But if ur wins are always small, u'll hesitate when ur stops hit, in fear of giving back days of gains. then u end up giving back weeks.
Read 4 tweets
Almost caught up wih july/august DMs. Guys, too many of these questions have been answered before thru Tweets, threads, charts, REAL-TIME analysis of plays, doodles etc. Just use the twitter search tool or search my hashtags. Answering the same questions over & over is draining
For the 1000th time, For lowfloats, all I care about is:

-fundamentals (mainly dilution, news, share structure etc)

-technicals (mainly volume, L2/tape & MAs etc)

-psychology (sentiment, who im up against etc)

to gauge if supply will be higher than demand (volume forecast)
The combination of those 3 things is the foundation of my ADF score, which is simply how I rank my setups. Extremely high ADF scores mean extremely high supply/Demand imbalance, so conviction goes up and I risk more ONCE I get my entry signals. Low scores = size down or avoid
Read 5 tweets
If only traders understood survivorship bias, they would understand why I lose my shit each time I see trading advice that doesnt center around risk management. U dont master trading by studying those who "succeeded". U learn the most by studying those who DIDNT

That's why I ALWAYS ALWAYS emphasize risk management more than strategy, Risk/Reward more than winrate, and my favorite, EXITS more than entries. Because even though BOTH are important, only ONE decides if there'll still be money in your account the next morning

When I was new, just like everyone else, I wanted to study those who "made it". Nothing wrong with that, since u obviously wanna find out what works. But my trading didnt take off until I did the opposite & I started researching those who FAILED. What were they doing differently?
Read 6 tweets
I get this DM SO damn much. "ADF how do I cut through all the noise & find consistency"

FOCUS on ONE thing!

Find a strategy/setup that is:

1 simple
2 common
4 winrate >50%
5 RR >3:1

then EMERGE urself in it until u MASTER it. Burn everything else

There are SO many strategies out there. SO many setups, SO many "mentors". U simply cant expect ur brain to digest all of that. u'll have too much conflicting info. Most fail more from information overload than ignorance. Just pick ONE thing & fucking master it.

2 trades a day, a 50%+ winrate, a 3:1 RR & a max loss of $50 will turn ur $2K acct into $4K in just a month (no fees). ALL u need is a 50% winrate & the discipline to keep ur RR at 3:1 or higher. Easier said than done but u get the point. Focus on RR optimization
Read 3 tweets
I can give u SEVERAL signals to look out for, but my rule of thumb for figuring out if supply (bears) or demand (bulls) is simple:

if u cant tell that Bears are in control, then they are not.

Done. It's literally that simple. My only exception is parabolic (blowoff) moves.
Most ppl like to short strength or try to guess the top. The result, far too often they risk blowups just to make pennies or breakeven. I dont anticipate shit. I LET the stock SHOW me that it is weak, THEN I attack. I want to get in when bulls ran out of ammo. clean all day fades
A successful shortseller hunts like a lion. Dont be fooled by action packed and dramatic lion documentaries. REAL lion hunts are BORING. They dont attack the alpha Bull when he is strong & mighty. They WAIT for him to tire, to wear down, to exhaust. THEN they go for the jugular.
Read 5 tweets
A secret of mine I've used since 2011, that has contributed greatly to my progress in many areas of life, is the simple "Daily Routine". Those who know me personally know that I live & die by my DR. It's a checklist of SPECIFIC things that I MUST do EVERY day, for the entire year
Creating it is simple. 1st, pick ONE long term goal for that year. Not 2 or 3, just 1. Then, select at least 10 things that u MUST do EVERY SINGLE day, in order to achieve that goal by the end of the year. That is ur DR. U must NEVER break it, & u must track ur performance daily.
Depending on your goal for that year, the daily routine obviously changes. When I wanted to grow intellectually, it was as simple as "read 10 pages of any book today, read 5 biographies today, learn 1 new animal today, learn about 1 new country today, watch 1 ted Talk today" etc.
Read 5 tweets

One of the absolute WORST things that can happen to you as a trader, is to make money after breaking one of ur rules. Why? One of the evolutionary roles of dopamine is not just to give pleasure, it is to REINFORCE the behavior that JUST gave u that pleasure
That's why we get massive dopamine spikes after sex, eating, and winning etc. The brain pumps out dopamine as a way to tell u: whatever u did just now was amazing, keep doing it. It doesnt know u broke a rule, it just knows pleasure & pain. So it incentivizes u to REPEAT that act
So even though u might write in ur little diary "i broke a rule today, i wont do it again", u're lying to urself. it's too late. Since u closed "green", u got a massive "high" out of breaking that rule. Ur brain linked the 2 activities together (breaking the rule & making money)
Read 7 tweets

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