Thread by @JeremyFarrar

Lockdowns have an impact, whilst in place they reduce transmission & new infections, they buy time, protect health systems & save lives. Lockdowns do not change the fundamentals of the virus, how infectious it is or the clinical illness it causes. theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…

To change fundamentals need stronger health systems, & public health, available diagnostic testing, treatments to prevent & treat infections and vaccines.Available to world in equitable & affordable way.Nationalism makes no sense it will not get anyone these interventions quicker

Fastest way lift lockdowns sustainably is to reduce transmission so number infections each day are extremely low, locally responsive public health in place, Test-Trace-Isolate is fully functional with surge capacity, #HCW protected,clinical care available & system trusted by all

I am in favour of very cautious lifting of restrictions. It is a balance of risk, it is not risk free. Some points to make - Globally the pandemic is accelerating. UK numbers are coming down & do have to open the economy, schools etc.

Lockdowns have not changed the fundamentals of the epidemic, the infection & its consequences remain the same. This is a risk, but you can never make that risk zero

Personal & public responsibility is really critical. What we all do matters. If we are cautious, follow guidelines, isolate if symptoms & when requested through T-T-I, keep distance, wash hands, work at home if possible but otherwise enjoy the looser restrictions.

Then we stand a chance of keeping flare-ups localised & containable. If we don’t, then we increase the chance of the epidemic escalating again & the need for broader and more draconian lockdowns again to contain rising infection rates -which no-one wants.

People have to continue to adhere to sensible physical distancing,hand washing,masks in crowded indoor environments, on public transport. Going to 1m is OK, but only if mitigated with other actions that can be done to make 1m safer-time in contact,outdoors not indoors, masks etc.

Continue to work from home if possible. We have to try and open schools, the negative impact continued school closure is huge, an inequitable impact across society.

Critical we all understand that we will see localised/regional outbreaks.They are inevitable.We have to identify those early thru T-T-I & act immediately prevent spread. Continue to be very careful for vulnerable populations, people in Care Homes, Hospitals,Factories,Prisons etc

If numbers increase & if R goes above 1 we will have to reintroduce some lockdowns, either regionally or nationally.
Data is crucial to that and lifting restrictions is contingent on maintaining current infection rates & their continued decline.If they go up we will have to act

The next 2 months are critical important, we must reduce & keep very low the infection rates before the autumn & winter. This infection is not going to disappear. At a global level the pandemic is accelerating. Coming out of the epidemic is even harder than going into it.

It is a balance of risks - there is no option that is risk free. We can all help reduce that risk for ourselves, for our families and for our communities.

Lockdowns have an impact, whilst in place they reduce transmission & new infections, they buy time, protect health systems & save lives. Lockdowns do not change the fundamentals of the virus, how infectious it is or the clinical illness it causes. This virus will not disappear.

Changing fundamentals depends on continued respect physical distancing & isolation,fast,accurate,available diagnostics,treatment,vaccines. Science is only true exit strategy, & can deliver. We must commit to that science benefiting all who need it global in fair & equitable way

Rebounds & 2nd waves probable,I believe inevitable, until fundamentals are changed & globally. We have to use the coming weeks wisely, learn lessons, invest public health,clinical care,protect #HCW, R&D&Manufacturing, build trust & prepare strategically for rebounds/2nd waves