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The Arctic:

1. all time heat record June 2020
2. 95% of old ice gone
3. ice free by 2021-2031
4. fastest warming place on Earth
5. no evidence sea ice will recover
6. vast wildfires mean carbon bursts
7. melting is destabilising the climate
8. permafrost collapse is irreversible
See this thread (with another thread at the end) for details :

Permafrost collapse :

The dangerously powerful ice-albedo feedback is mentioned here but not highlighted as being crucial or explored in any detail...
bbc.com/news/science-e…
Ice-free' refers to the first ice-free Arctic summer.

Three 2020 studies:

2020-2049
agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…

60% chance of 2030s
penntoday.upenn.edu/news/Arctic-co…

2034 most likely?... satellite obs may suggest 2024-2033:
ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ic…
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Correction: emissions would have to keep rising into the 2030s to hit 4C by 2055-2070.

Clarification :

Few scientists would predict ~1.8C by 2030, but as far as I can tell it's a possibility (3.6C relates to the Pliocene. The earliest we may hit 3.6C according to peer-reviewed science would be the end of the 2040s (2050s more plausible).
Additional info:

Despite a smattering of papers/reports suggesting 3C by the 2040s is possible, 2- 2.5C would appear far more likely (according to the climate scientists I have talked to, and climate models).

Read 3 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Did you know?

1. If greenhouse gas emissions don't peak and fall sharply by soon after 2025, climate change will likely be severe enough to kill many billions by 2055.

2. Governments and corporations plan on increasing fossil fuel production well beyond 2025.

Let that sink in.
'The Met Office ran 17 different models with these feedbacks. All concluded a 4°C world by 2055 was likely if emissions continue to rise. Even if we are lucky, we are still likely to hit 4°C by 2070.'
newscientist.com/article/dn1786…
'a 4°C world might only support one billion people'.

climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-…
Read 15 tweets
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Ben See
@ClimateBen
Climate Change by Numbers

a) average global temperature rise:

1.5°C not safe
|
2°C very dangerous
|
2.5°C
|
3°C most species wiped out
|
3.5°C
|
4°C huge death toll likely billions

* today: 1.3°C

* by 2030-2045: 2°C

* by 2050-2150: 2.5- 4°C

b) years left to act: 0
1/ 'for the MAJORITY of animals and plants, 3.2°C of warming would mean having most of their habitat wiped out entirely.'

We'll most likely go over 3°C at some point between 2050 and 2150. I suspect this will happen before 2070, but of course I can't know.qz.com/1280872/keepin…
2/ Some scientists suggest fewer than one billion people could survive on a 4°C Earth:

climatecodered.org/2019/08/at-4c-…
Read 9 tweets

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