Thread by @ProfPaulPoast

What if neither 🇨🇳 or 🇺🇸 develop the #COVID19 vaccine? What if it's another country?

It will illustrate a how "Middle Powers" are often the "glue" of global order

[THREAD]

While @Dereklowe highlights the "Elbow Throwing" between the US and China (and even Russia) in developing a vaccine, he also notes attempts by European countries

blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archi…

...and efforts by India

economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-…

This underscores the massive variation in how countries have responded to the #COVID19 pandemic, as discussed in this new Global Public Health piece (@Emassard, @scattlgreer)

tandfonline.com/eprint/XUC4UHQ…

More directly, it highlights how the vaccine could eventually come from a "middle power"

Indeed, @brucebrookings in @ForeignAffairs explicitly used the term "middle powers" to highlight the contributions of some "smaller states" to the #COVID19 effort

foreignaffairs.com/articles/franc…

As he states: "In the absence of credible great-power leadership from the United States or China, middle powers—including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, among others—have led the way in coordinating health and economic responses."

That echoes what Andrew Ehrhardt recently argued in @WarOnTheRocks: "Equally important is an understanding that the demand for best practices means that...countries large and small can play an outsized role in shaping the approaches of other nations."

warontherocks.com/2020/04/diseas…

The "middle powers" leading the way include South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, and New Zealand

foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/27/the…

In particular, the Prime Minister of New Zealand, @jacindaardern, has been applauded for the quick and strict approach New Zealand adopted to the virus

politico.eu/article/kiwis-…

This contributed to an observation that women-led countries appear to better handle the pandemic

nytimes.com/2020/05/15/wor…

But @dadakim pointed out that it's not so simple as "Women Leaders --> Lower COVID19 deaths". Instead, it's about the "type of country that chooses female leaders"

https://twitter.com/dadakim/status/1272269882868985856

In this case, the "type of country" appears to be "middle powers" -- New Zealand, Germany, Taiwan, and Denmark.

Though it also includes small/micro-states like Sint Maarten, where Silveria Jacobs received praise for a VERY "no nonsense" message

youtube.com/watch?v=lNm31r…

#COVID19 brings into sharp relief a broader point I raised a couple years ago on @monkeycageblog: the work of maintaining (and even creating) the international order typically falls on "middle powers", not "great powers"

washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-ca…

This point was echoed in a @ChathamHouse report by @rolandparis

chathamhouse.org/publication/ca…

How "Middle Powers" can play this role is illustrated by Denmark's leadership in post-Cold War @NATO expansion

https://twitter.com/ProfPaulPoast/status/1164641339453202443

So what do we know, in general, about Middle Powers?

The role of Middle Powers in international politics has been of interest to scholars for a long time. Indeed, one of the first papers published in @IntOrgJournal was on the topic

jstor.org/stable/2703870…

A major contributor to this research was Carsten Holbraad, such as this piece in Cooperation and Conflict from the early 1970s.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00…

But an excellent piece for gaining an understanding of what are Middle Powers and what they do is offered by Laura Neack (@muohio) in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics (@OUPPolitics)

oxfordre.com/politics/polit…

According to the article, middle powers are non-great powers states “which are capable of exerting influence in international affairs in specific instances, [which] differentiates them from all the rest”.

The state commonly thought of as a middle power is Canada...and it's "middle status" was on full display last week

theguardian.com/world/2020/jun…

Its clear that the states mentioned above are "exerting influence" in #COVID19 treatment (and even a cure).

This is why charts like this one keep garnering attention: a grouping of middle powers are outperforming a great (or "super") power

https://twitter.com/McFaul/status/1275596616963985409

Of course, that doesn't mean middle powers will be able to continue exerting influence long term.

For instance, @HelenHet20 in @EngelsbergIdeas lays bare the global challenges facing EU member states long term & how #COVID19 heightened those challenges

engelsbergideas.com/essays/geopoli…

In sum, if a vaccine comes from a middle power, it will be a vivid illustration of how they can influence international affairs & frequently are the "glue" holding together the global order.

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