Thread by @tomaspueyo

The @WhiteHouse is planning to stop federal funding for testing. It comes on the back of comments from Trump suggesting "Cases go up because we're testing more". Here's why that's inaccurate. (Thread) [1/7]

forbes.com/sites/andrewso…

This chart compares cases and tests in the US. Red line / left red axis=cases. Blue line / right blue axis=tests. The tests axis is 33 times bigger than the cases axis, so that, when the blue and red lines cross, 3% of tests are positive. [2/7]

You can see the blue and red lines never cross because the US never got enough testing for that as a whole. Here's how this graph looks like for some US states that have been able to get below 3%. [3/7]

If you look back at the US graph, you'll see that between ~April 7th and June 4th, tests go up while cases go down!

And then starting around June 7th, tests go down but cases go up!

That only changes around June 13th, when tests go back up again IN REACTION to cases going up [4

The fact that tests and cases are very weakly correlated can easily be shown by the many states where tests have been going up while cases went down. [5/7]

So no, cases are not going up because there's more testing.
Cases are going up because infections are going up.
[6/7]

In fact, I predict that the strategy of lowering tests to lower cases won't work, @realDonaldTrump

For cases to go down, you need SUBSTANTIALLY fewer tests, because they are prioritized: Those most likely to be infected will be the first to get tested—and turn positive. [7/7]