Thread by @tomaspueyo

Countries in the European Union are about to make a terrible mistake by reopening for travel next Monday.

I wrote an article about how to reopen safely. [1/12]
medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co…

Importing even a few cases can cause severe outbreaks [2/12]

Some countries are already open to citizens from most other EU countries—but not all countries are open. They want to fully reopen. [3/12]

Most EU countries are closed to people from outside the EU as of today. They want to change this on Monday too. [4/12]

EU countries want to leave out citizens from countries like Russia or the US, but a EU country has more cases per capita than both: Sweden. Should we really let their infections spread across Europe? [5/12]

Portugal also has 5x the EU average cases per 100k inhabitants. Part of it is due to their borders having remained open to Brazilians and Americans throughout the crisis. This would be a loophole that Brazilians and Americans could use to go anywhere in the EU. [6/12]

Tourism is important, so we should definitely reopen. But safely. [7/12]

There are no PCR requirements from most places inside the EU. That is a very little cost for an outsized return, by severely limiting infections coming into your country. Some countries in the EU already do it. [8/12]

Denmark already discriminates between people who do and don't have a second home in Denmark.

Just with a few intelligent measures, we can do this reopening well:
1. Go beyond just cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Use instead several epidemiological factors, to get a sense of the risk associated with the citizens of a country. [9/12]

2. Don’t consider all EU countries the same. There are very significant differences rooted in their choices during the pandemic.
3. Take into account the value per tourist. If you don’t have precise data, just use spend per tourist, or even cruder, GDP per capita. [10/12]

4. Don’t just have two lists: allowed countries and forbidden countries. Design several tiers, with more requirements for riskier countries.
5. Treat tourists, long-term visitors and homeowners differently. The latter should have more rights.
[11/12]

5. PCRs tests catch many ppl around the time when symptoms appear (~5 days after infection). Use PCR tests as frequently as possible. A good tradeoff is during the trip (in origin or destination), and a few days after (ideally with quarantine in between). [12/12]