Profile picture
, 7 tweets, 2 min read
My Authors
Read all threads
Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
nytimes.com/2020/06/25/ups…
Democrats also hold an edge in several contested race for U.S. Senate
AZ: Kelly+9
MI: Peters+10
NC: Cunningham+3
Cooper (D)+11 in NCGOV
nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/…
In many ways, the poll is unchanged since October. The Democratic party ID advantage remains at D+1. Voters say they backed Trump by 2.5 in '16. Biden's favorability rating is unchanged.
Yet the president's lead among white voters has all but vanished, at least for now.
The shift among white voters is concentrated among young and col+ white voters, but it extends to older and white voters without a degree, as well.
Maybe more surprising: virtually zero change among nonwhite voters, despite attention on racial issues
The voters who don't back Trump/Biden do lean GOP by registration/party ID. They voted for Trump in '16 by a 34-20 margin, as well.
But they're undecided for a reason: Trump's approval rating among this group is 29-56, and he's got a long way to go toward winning them
And at the moment, there are limits to what Trump can hope to extract out of the electorate right now.
55% of registered voters said there was "almost no chance" they would support him.
In terms of the individual states, I wouldn't spend *too* much time dwelling on each. At N=650 each, you get real noise. Maybe NC's too Biden; maybe AZ's too Trump. Totally possible, and that kind of noise is expected here.
But taken together, the story is clear.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Nate Cohn

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Nate_Cohn see all

Profile picture
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
For the next early AM thread, let's talk about another strategic question facing a campaign: Biden's VP pick
The Biden campaign, it seems to me, faces many tough tasks here, but I'll simplify to three: 1) manage factional demands in the Dem coalition; 2) choose a qualified president/governing partner; 3) win the election, which may mean 'do no harm' with this lead (but not necessarily)
These questions exist regardless of the news environment, but they're undoubtedly mediated by the current news environment, and particularly the focus on criminal justice, protests, race relations, etc.
Read 31 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
It's worth keeping issue salience in mind as we mull the deterioration in the president's standing, as well as his prospects for a comeback
Right now, the campaign focus is on coronavirus, criminal justice, protest, race relations, handling crises, etc.
These are not issues where the president has ever fared well in the polls, and as long as the campaign/public is focused on them, Trump is going to have a tough time
Trump's relative strengths, right now, are not as relevant. He still does better on the economy, for instance, but that's under the radar. Among no col whites, I'd guess he's still strong on immigration. But these issues aren't salient right now.
Read 11 tweets
Profile picture
Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
A related lesson, for me, is that Trump should be treated like an ordinary candidate for electoral-analysis purposes. He was not DOA in 2016 when the fundamentals said he should be competitive; he wasn't invincible in 2018 when GOP should struggle.
This is part of why I've been fairly optimistic about Trump's chances over the last few years: the pace of economic growth would make an ordinary incumbent favored to win reelection, and his approval ratings were not nearly so bad as to stop it.
But that's not so true anymore
I don't think it is at all clear that the typical incumbent president would be a favorite to win, at least if you stipulate that the public thought they had performed so poorly on coronavirus (an ordinary incumbent who handled it well probably would be a favorite)
Read 4 tweets

Embed code for your website

×
Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!