Thread by @anlomedad

For 66% chance at staying near 1.5C, the world must have reduced annual CO2-only emissions to less than 17.5 Gt in 2030.*

Per capita for 7.5bn ppl for your personal footprint, see #3-#6

*w/ assumed & growing non-CO2 from 2018 level of 7.5Gt.

Data from unenvironment.org/resources/emis…

UNEP Emission Gap Report states 25Gt CO2-EQ as target for global emissions in 2030 for a 66% chance at 1.5C by 2100 with an overshoot to 1.7C.

Bc non-CO2 GHG are difficult to reduce & will grow from 2018 level of 7.5Gt/a,

25Gt-EQ in 2030 translate to global < 17.5Gt CO2-only

Per capita for 7.5bn people:
6t/a in 2018 to 3.3t CO2-EQ and

< 2.3t for CO2-only in 2030.

3 factors to be observed:

1) every state's services incur CO2-EQ. For Germany, UBA sets 0.73t/pca CO2-only (no data for CO2-EQ)

Which leaves less than 1.57t CO2 per capita in 2030.

2) no more "borrowing" CO2 from low-emitting nations. Because less than 1.57t CO2-only means: most people alive must reduce their CO2footprint until 2030.

And don't kid yourself with offsets while retaining your high-carbon lifestyle. Rapid and deep behaviour change IS required

3) Nations with high emissions history like EU, UK, US, AUS, RUS are required by Paris agreement to reduce faster than nations with low emissions history.

Our personal "western" footprint in 2030 must be less than "less than 1.57t CO2-only".
Interesting to divvy up the % 👇

Cumulative emissions - 2030 by nations' population to observe #equity from the Paris agreement:

1.57t * pop - (CumEm until 2030). Sum / pop = per capita budget in 2030.

🇩🇪 1.57*82m -(90.57Gt + 5.8Gt from 2020-30) =>
32.37 /82m = 0.39t

🇨🇳 1.57*1400 -(200+50)=> 1948/1400= 1.38t

The xamples assume a more or less linear reduction.
Where🇩🇪ends up at annual 320Mt in 2030 (down from 800MT) and🇨🇳arrives at annual 2Gt (down from 9.7Gt)

The remaining per capita budget in 2030 is higher when🇩🇪reduces much faster. Also: 320Mt in 2030 is not fast enough for 1.5C

The above is for true individual budget in 2030. (Remember: 1.57t was global pc base due to a deduction of 0.73t for states' services from the 2.3t CO2-only.)

A nations' budget for what UNEP calls, 66% chance at 1.5C, adds 0.73t to the per capita milestone 2030:
🇩🇪1.12t
🇨🇳2.11t