Thread by @RyanMillerNFL

How to win #SFBX : Quarterbacks

In case it snuck up on anyone else, T-2 weeks until draft day for the biggest fantasy league in the world!
We’ll start with QB and work our way down the roster & break down how to best position yourself in this year’s unique scoring system

First Up: The Scoring

@ScottFish24 was kind to us this year compared to years past with the QB scoring set-up 🤣 as most of the settings can be found in a public league. The one interesting twist? -1/incompletion and 0.5/completion. So, just how much will this wrinkle QB? ⬇️

By reviewing all QBs since 2010, we are able to find the prototypical QB for SFBX:

• 30+ pass TD
• 4500+ yards
• Historically, not an elite rusher. Even with Lamar Jackson’s INSANE 1200 rush yards, he still needed 36 pass TD on top of that to crack top 10

& one more stat..

WINS

Of 270 qualifying QBs since 2010, the highest SFBX score of a quarterback with 6 or fewer wins ranks 55th/270 (Cam Newton)

Meanwhile, 29/40 of the highest SFBX seasons in that span finished with 10+ wins

While the Konami Code is a very real thing for fantasy QBs, it seems that SFBX has removed most of the edge it seems to offer. They truly need to be a DUAL threat in order to pay off here

QBs with 500+ rush yards since 2010
(additional 30+ pass TD or 10+ rush TD seasons in bold)

So, where should we look?

Basing wins on Vegas odds for 9.5+ win teams & looking at teams who averaged 35 attempts/game last season (volume hunting), we narrow the list significantly

>Mahomes
>Brees
>Prescott
>Brady
>Stidham(?)
>Wentz
>Roethlisberger- historical assumption

Using the great @MikeClayNFL ‘s public projections, we can see how his outlook on QBs this season compares to the QBs over the past 10 seasons (among 300 total)

So, while Lamar is Lamar and shouldn’t just be skipped, his absurd TD% last year & overall reliance on the run game is going to be hard to replicate. History shows we should focus on QBs in positive gameflows + pass heavy in the red zone with this scoring setup, esp at their ADPs

Guys I like relative to #SFBX ADP
(Courtesy of @the_FF_engineer)

+ Drew Brees (ADP of QB7)
+ Carson Wentz (QB9)
+ Jared Goff (QB16)
+ Ryan Tannehill (QB18!!)
+ Big Ben (QB21)

Guys I’m fading vs. ADP
- Deshaun Watson (QB4)
- Josh Allen (at QB10)
- Kirk Cousins (QB17)

The analysis of fading mobile QBs feels like a dated one, because it is. But also, in a league of 1440, you need to zig when others zag, and this seems like a historically reliable place to do so.

(Also, in case we forget, we are TERRIBLE at nailing QB based on ADP alone)

https://twitter.com/ScottBarrettDFB/status/1276075068414726144

Did you like this dive? If so, I’ll be sure to do the same for RB, WR, and TE over the next few days to position yourself well for a deep #SFBX run!