Thread by @RyanMillerNFL

How to Win #SFBX: Wide Receivers

What a fun series to write!

While WR value is lowered in terms of total points scored, their true value in @ScottFish24’s latest installment comes via their depth. So, what kind of WR should you look for in drafting the most upside?

Let’s go!

TL;DR

aDOT > 10?
•Top 24 = 90+ targets
•To even be a startable option? 60+ tgts

aDOT < 10?
•Top 24 = 130+ targets
•To even be a startable option? 80+ tgts

Favorite mid-round picks: Ridley, JuJu, ARob, Thielen, Woods, Keenan Allen

But I worked hard, so keep reading 🤓

Scoring

The reason WR is so undervalued compared to other positions is due to the lack of premiums they can earn. RBs can double dip on both 1st downs, while TEs get an extra 0.5 PPR. Because of these reasons, a WR1 has, on average, scored as much as an average TE1 since 2015...

The depth WR brings, however, is invaluable to being a dominant threat all season. Not only are WR most sensitive to matchups (depth gives options), but they also have the largest pool within the top 100 overall #SFBX assets

Zero WR at least appears to be the move in rounds 1-3

Thanks to @amazehayes_’s INCREDIBLE SFB database (which you get with a $1 donation to #FantasyCares!), we are able to put point thresholds on “successful” SFB receivers:

Top 6 WR: 250+ point finish
Avg. WR1: 230+
Avg. WR2: 200+
Avg. WR3: 170+
Avg. WR4: 145+
Avg. WR5: 120+ points

By digging beyond the aggregate stats into pbp data, I split the WR pool into 2 ‘profiles:’ Shorter aDOT (0-10) vs. Long aDOT (10+). Obviously volume is king for WR...but what do those thresholds *specifically* look like for each type to return playable value in SFBX?

⚠️If targeting a Long aDOT receiver, here are the target thresholds you should be considering:

WR1? 110+ targets
WR2? 90+
WR3? 80+
Startable in any capacity? 60+ tgts

I’m not trying to sell this as rocket science, but these concrete #’s are crucial in evaluating true “upside”

⚠️The landscape is, obviously, MUCH more difficult for Shorter aDOT receivers:

WR1? 150+ targets
WR2? 130+
WR3? 100+
Startable in any capacity? 80+

When looking at late round fliers, ask yourself whether or not a WR has a reasonable path to these target totals this season

“But what about players who aren’t projected for big roles, but can plug in w/ injuries?”

Great question!

In evaluating “spot start” potential, ask yourself whether they could earn 6+ targets in that matchup

(WR performing top-36 at least 33% of the time, 6+ tgt/gm in bold)

In looking for #SFBX league-winning WRs (250+ points), I took a look at all offenses supporting a 250+ WR since ‘15

Takeaways
*1/32 instances had <4000 total pass yds
*550 projected attempts is a safe hurdle
*WR1 130+ targets
*WR2 should keep D honest, but not steal away volume

Projecting those team totals into 2020, here are the teams (WR) that fit these molds and have historical top 6-WR upside

ATL (Julio or Ridley)
KC (Hill)
TB (Evans or Godwin)
LAR (Woods)
NO (Thomas)
PIT (JuJu)
IND (T.Y.)
GB (Adams)
MIN (Thielen)
CHI (Robinson)
LAC (Allen)

If I’m waiting on WR in early rounds (taking advantage of WR’s depth), Ridley/Woods/JuJu/T.Y./ARob/Keenan are the guys I’m looking to SOAK UP in the mid rounds. Everything we’ve seen from their offense (and prior production) aligns with those great SFBX WR, & can be a steal!

All insights from my QB, RB, and WR thread will be put into one place soon, with the overall profiles of each type that thrive specifically in #SFBX. Happy drafting and good luck!

As for me personally, I think I’ll be hammering WR in R4-R7