New modeling of the #COVID19 virus shows that COVID-19 is spreading more rapidly in #Oregon: ow.ly/oghl50AiYje
The model, which is based on data through 6/18, offers 3 projections -- optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.
The model, which is based on data through 6/18, offers 3 projections -- optimistic, moderate and pessimistic.
The optimistic scenario suggests that case counts would remain stable at about 180/day over the next month. This is the least likely scenario to occur because it assumes diagnosis of all new cases and presently about one-third of new infections cannot be traced to a known source.
The moderate scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due to increased transmission and expanded testing -- and that daily infections of COVID-19 could rise over the next month to more than 900 per day, with daily hospitalizations rising from 8 to 27.
The most pessimistic scenario suggests the rise in cases in the last modeling report was due entirely to increased transmission and not expanded testing -- and that infections could rise to more than 4,800, and hospitalizations could increase to 82 per day.
"We know that #COVID19 is in our communities," said Dean Sidelinger, MD, Oregon state health officer. "This latest model provides us with a sobering reminder that we all need to guard against continued spread, especially as we continue to reopen and the weather gets warmer."
