Thread by @RyanMillerNFL

How to Win #SFBX: Running Backs

Picking up where we left off at QB, let’s take a look at the intracacies of the #SFBX scoring system and see what types of running backs you should prioritize when looking to unearth league-winning upside

Here we go!

TL;DR

For upside, look for someone capable of both 70 targets AND at least 90
carries to boot. A tall ask for someone with a later ADP, but that is the exact type of profile that will pay massive dividends in @ScottFish24’s amazing league given the chance to play

Process below.

First Up: Scoring

• Decimal yardage
• 0.5 PPR
• The twist? 0.5 per first down

These settings lend themselves to the typical analysis you’ll find with 0.5 PPR formats, but I’ll point out a few things I noticed when looking for upside you desperately need to beat 1440 people!

Applying SFBX scoring over the past 5 seasons, you’ll see the scoring settings hold up evenly. From here on, we will list any of the top 120 prior performances on the list as a RB2 or better designation, and one that would return solid value in #SFBX

The overall takeaway is that unless you find yourself getting one of the few bona fide workhorses left in fantasy football (1500 total yards/10+ TD), you‘ll basically find the same projected pts no matter where you draft along the top 20 RBs. But how do you know WHICH to bet on?

One slight edge to @ScottFish24’s first down bonuses is exploited favoring the receiving game

First Downs Bonuses are earned every —

4.7 Rushes
3.6 Targets
2.7 Receptions

The more heavily a RB is involved in the passing game, the more bonuses they are likely to hit.

Just because someone isn’t highly involved in the pass game doesn’t make it a death sentence, however.

11 of the top 60 SFBX scores (~RB1 finish) since 2015 involved a RB with <40 targets on the year......

...BUT, if a running back isn’t involved in the pass game, they need to be *really* involved in the rushing game.

Of those 11 listed with less than 40 targets, 7 of them had 250+ rushes to compensate.

(The others- K. Hunt, T. Gurley, M. Ingram, E. Elliott- averaged 12 TD)

So, if you’re trying to find upside and targeting someone not involved in the pass game?

Essentially, that player NEEDS to have 150+ carries to be worth anything ☠️

Out of 196(!) RB w/ < 50 targets & under 150 carries, only Tevin Coleman finished w/ a top 100 overall season

Who should you look for in later rounds, then?

• someone capable of 70+ targets, AND
• capable of at least 90 rushes

Picture #1: 70+ targets and 90+ rushes (91.9% startable)

Picture #2: 70+ targets but under 90 rushes (14.3% startable)

Starting caliber RBs I like a lot more based on these findings:
Leonard Fournette
Austin Ekeler
Phillip Lindsay
Josh Jacobs
Ferrous Guice

Starters I’m wary of:
Marlon Mack/Jonathan Taylor
Mark Ingram
Kerryon Johnson
Melvin Gordon

Players with later ADPs that I can see with a path to reaching 70+ targets AND 90+ carries worth the flier:

Matt Breida
Cam Akers
Tarik Cohen
Antonio Gibson
Damien Harris
Justin Jackson

Similar RBs I’m fading:
Nyheim Hines
Raheem Mostert
James White
Damien Williams

Hope y’all enjoyed this installment! WR and TE (and a composite strategy) to come next week ✌🏼