Kawasaki_KR-1 Profile picture
Jun 27, 2020 5 tweets 2 min read Read on X
This week's installment of Japanese Tesla listings/sales. #Tesla #CYAZ #テスラ #モデル3

TL;DR: CPO liquidation is nearly over. No serious attempt to sell new cars. Not much inventory left.
S/X/Y summary.

Most CPOs are gone as their list prices continue to drop. 3rd party used sales are dead, though prices haven't come down much yet.

Many new/demo/display pulled & discounting has stopped. Seems to have given up selling them &/or inventory sufficiently depleted. Image
Import data say no Tesla imported in May. Only ~30 YTD. Sold <40 in Apr-May after some discounting. I'm expecting ~60 for Q2. Probably only 20~40 new ones left in inventory. Simply not much happening in Q2 beyond selling CPOs. AFAIK, no news on any shipment in June.
The situation is similar in Taiwan. Only 1 imported in Q2. Likely very low on inventory by now & have not seen any news of new shipment in June.
Looking at JPN & TW, you'd think this is the kitchen sink Q, but we know their logistics suck, so who knows. They prob. could have done extra 1~2k had they sent enough to these 2 markets.

In Q1, they registered 1,709 (TW) & <229 (JP). Apr-May, 160 & <40, respectively.

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More from @KawasakiKR11

Dec 9, 2022
RSV hospitalization data from S. Korea.

"Fewer" hospitalization after the skipped season.

The pattern seen in Japan as well (see below).

How come "immunity debt" isn't a thing in E. Asia?

1/
If anything S.Korea had more cases than usual, but fewer hospitalization. That makes sense, given that RSV is worse in <1. Delayed infection is a good thing.

2/

jkms.org/DOIx.php?id=10…
Japan famously had a big RSV wave in 2021 after almost nothing in 2020. And ~normal wave in 2022.

niid.go.jp/niid/ja/10/209…

But...

3/
Read 9 tweets
Dec 7, 2022
What's ironic is that, if you follow the logic of "immunity debt" enthusiasts (charitably, tbf), you end up concluding that "freedom day" was even dumber than we already thought.

1/
For one, we know infection-induced immunity to many of these pathogens is fairly shot-lived. i.e. what happened yrs ago doesn't really matter.

2/
For another, not all pathogens are created equal. Some are more infectious/harder to control.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Jul 21, 2022
Latest genomic surveillance data from Tokyo & Kobe.

Mostly BA.5 at this point, but BA.2.75 also starting to showing up.

For Tokyo, majority of sequences from July are BA.5. Some BA.4/BA.2.12.1 & now BA.2.75.
bousai.metro.tokyo.lg.jp/_res/projects/…
1/
Variant-specific PCR says suspected BA.5 was ~3/4 during 7/5~7/11. Almost all suspected BA.5 for the latest wk (7/12~7/18).

2/
Similar story for Kobe. L452R+ > 80% for 7/11~7/17 (1st table). Majority of sequences (2nd table) from 7/4~7/10 were BA.5. They show BA.2.12.1 under BA.2 in ( ), BA.2.75 in [ ].

/fin
Read 4 tweets
Apr 11, 2022
Mini-thread on JPN Covid mortality data wrt "from" vs. "with".

(Meaning to do this since MHLW advisory board posted some useful data a month ago, so here it is.)

tl;dr: Covid is still the primary cause in majority of reported deaths & Omicron is bad.

1/
MHLW guideline essentially requires all deaths by Covid patients be reported, so the reported #s include some incidental cases. So what % is incidental?

2/
First, data from Kanagawa pref. (pop. 9.2m, 2nd largest) on the "primary" causes of death in Jan/Feb '22 (almost all Omicron).

Primary cause: 53.2%
Not primary cause: 32.1%
Undetermined: 14.7%

Note that "not primary cause" doesn't mean it wasn't a contributing factor.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Apr 9, 2022
JPN ports of entry VOC screening data (focus on Asia & WW).

-SE Asia, esp. Vietnam, remains problematic.

-Despite all the news on China, most so far are HK, not ML China & total % testing + remains quite low.

First, South, Southeast, Central & East Asia.

1/
Western Asia

2/
# & % of VOCs detected by region.

3/
Read 8 tweets
Feb 6, 2022
Omicron not looking so "mild" in Japan.

L -> R
Alpha, Delta & Omicron waves

2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR

Note the differences in Y-axes.

Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.

1/ Image
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.

2/ Image
Roughly,

Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.

Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.

3/
Read 11 tweets

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