OK everyone, pencils down and eyes on the professor. It's time for a data study. Today's lesson: how more cases the week of June 13 will not see a substantial rise in deaths and we'll use the week of April 14 and current rate of deaths to cases to show this. #FactsBeforeFear
I took the overall case fatality rate, adjusted week end June 27 cases with age stratification of June 20 (as shown in the CDC Virologic Surveillance data) and estimated a death count 2 weeks. Then I revised it again showing what happens when you apply May 23-June 6 data. 
Keep in mind, the original is half the result of April 14 because of different ages and the revision is lower than the projection that relied on overall averages. Even the revision is relying on data almost a month old, meaning the decline in CFR is probably understated.
For the record, I am NOT projecting 5,100 two weeks from now. I actually think it will be substantially less. But I'm using a conservative estimate to show how a change in age demographic and lower CFR means substantially fewer deaths despite the 50,000 jump in cases.
One other very important point to add, the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is MUCH less in the South than in the North (climate?). Since that's where cases are 'spiking,' it's important to note this very much.
