My take on French municipal elections THREAD:
1) a resounding defeat of President's party: not a single victory of note by "En Marche!". This is a personal setback
2) conversely, the no less resounding victory by Macron's PM at Le Havre is a big problem for Prez who can... 1/5
1) a resounding defeat of President's party: not a single victory of note by "En Marche!". This is a personal setback
2) conversely, the no less resounding victory by Macron's PM at Le Havre is a big problem for Prez who can... 1/5
...hardly fire such a popular figure; but with such a popular PM, the President will inevitably be cramped in a way which will weigh on 2022 elex. And of course, Édouard Philippe can jump ship.
3) massive abstention (close to 60%) is in part a reaction to Covid mismanagement: 2/5
3) massive abstention (close to 60%) is in part a reaction to Covid mismanagement: 2/5
electors were called to vote in 1st round on 15 March as pandemic was picking up; this was widely seen as an unnecessary risk which was duly punished at this deferred 2d round. But low participation is also a sign of deeper democratic crisis.
3/5
3/5
4) Greens secured remarkable victories in Lyon, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Tours, Besançon, Poitiers etc.This impressive political surge is not automatically bankable in 2022 presidential elex: Greens have yet to demonstrate credibility at national level.4/5
5) Most serious populist challenge to Macron remains ext.right & his biggest non-populist challenge is the mainstream right, notably if Philippe runs.
6) Mainstream (socialist) left emerges even weaker than before from municipal elections & ditto for populist left (Mélenchon).5/5
6) Mainstream (socialist) left emerges even weaker than before from municipal elections & ditto for populist left (Mélenchon).5/5
