A back-of-the-enveloppe thread on the spread of #COVIDー19:
1) HUBEI province (ca 60 million people) has had close to 3000 deaths. It still has an active caseload of ca 20 K patients & some 130 new cases a day, & ca 30 daily deaths. So I expect up to 3500 deaths, assuming...1/9
1) HUBEI province (ca 60 million people) has had close to 3000 deaths. It still has an active caseload of ca 20 K patients & some 130 new cases a day, & ca 30 daily deaths. So I expect up to 3500 deaths, assuming...1/9
...a winding down of the epidemic there by end March. If,stress IF, the rest of the world became like Hubei (0.8%of world population), the death toll could be of ca 400 K with a cumulative number of cases of ca 8 million.This possibly sets the outer bounds of a Covid pandemic 2/n
Of course, active measures in the world may prevent Hubei-scale outbreaks so this is unlikely to happen (conversely, late but tough measures in Hubei have also limited Covid's spread in that province).
2) GOOD NEWS though in rest of mainland China ( minus Hubei, HK,Macau): 3/n
2) GOOD NEWS though in rest of mainland China ( minus Hubei, HK,Macau): 3/n
With ca 1.35 bn people, rest-of-China has a cumulative caseload of ca 13 K (ie barely more than SKOREA+Italy today) & less than 120 deaths (Italy: 197 by 6 March) over a 2 month period. Prompt+stringent measures appear to have worked. New cases are now in low single digits. 4/n
If rest-of-China of China had followed Hubei pattern, deaths would have reached some 60 K and the health system would have had to cope with a ca 1.2 million caseload. Those who worry about economic impact of current measures need to think about the impact of this scenario 5/n
Known unknown: what is the potential for a rebound of Covid in rest-of-China when Hubei lockdown and other measures are lifted?
(3) Northern ITALY: the 2 most affected provinces (15 million people) have a caseload of thousands & deaths rising by ca a third every day in March 6/n
(3) Northern ITALY: the 2 most affected provinces (15 million people) have a caseload of thousands & deaths rising by ca a third every day in March 6/n
Rates of increase of caseloads (but mercifully not or not yet of deaths) are now similar in rest of WestEurope, albeit with a time lag vis à vis Italy. If FR+GE+BENELUX+Spain+Scandinavia+restofItaly (ca 260M inh) get to current North Italy levels...7/n
...the caseload+death toll would be similar to those of Hubei: close to 70 K and 2K respectively. And it could be worse since Covid in NorthItaly is still surging. This scenario is avoidable: as we saw, 95% of China was shielded from main brunt of Covid thru prompt measures 8/n
My tentative conclusion as an amateur (but one who was involved French disaster planning 15 yrs ago from a CT perspective): move tough, move NOW to phase 3 in Europe. Economic impact will be severe- but better than a drawn-out & costly Hubei-style scenario. Comments welcome 9/9
