HOW NOT RUN A CRISIS
France isn't the only country to be facing a shortage of masks. Even China was caught barefaced when the then-"Wuhan virus" broke out in that city. Indeed, France shipped masks+PPE to Wuhan (quietly because China wanted it that way: no geopolitics) 1/9
France isn't the only country to be facing a shortage of masks. Even China was caught barefaced when the then-"Wuhan virus" broke out in that city. Indeed, France shipped masks+PPE to Wuhan (quietly because China wanted it that way: no geopolitics) 1/9
But there were several ways to handle such a problem. France had an acute mask shortage because its big buffer stocks (1.7bn FFP2s & surgical masks) built up to face a pandemic had not been renewed from 2011 onwards, whereas the risk of a pandemic figured prominently in its...2/9
...national security assessments (spoiler: I was involved). In a big crisis, one normally should have dealt with the issue as follws: 1.the country has a big shortage of masks (stick to the truth); 2. We have to give priority to the health carers (easy to understand) 3/9
3. we are working hard to lessen the shortage (explain how). 4. if the shortage was due to unwise decisions, those responsible will be held to account (we hear your anger). Although point 2 was used consistently (and later on point 3), another narrative was put forward 4/9
'Masks are useless for the public; worse, they may be harmful if they lead to carelessness in social distancing; btw, they are complicated to use properly; FFP2 masks and surgical masks are interchangeable (since there weren't enough FFP2s for all health workers)'. 5/9
This charade went on for three weeks. As the WHO & several EU countries are insisting that the public wear textile masks, the same officials are now doing a complete U-turn. Understandably, the public doesn't take well to this failure or others (eg testing; the March 15 elex) 6/9
...which were similarly mishandled. Because the threat from Covid is the overriding reality, the response from the confined citizens remains muted. But a big crisis (think Chernobyl) isn't like ordinary news which is forgotten with the next news cycle. People listen carefully.7/9
And they remember forever. They don't forgive when they see themselves as having been manipulated and treated as children. At the first opportunity -ie the 2022 general elections- punishment will come (think about how the Spanish govt was voted out after the 2004 Madrid...8/9
Bombing). I think I know who'll lose that election. I don't know who'll win it. Opposition politicians haven't done well in the Covid crisis, even Le Pen who was in favour of going ahead with the misguided March 15 elections. So expect the unexpected. Sorry, no crystal ball 9/9
