Pakistan has a history of blaming India for attacks on its soil (& vice versa). Allegations are often exaggerated. But the fact is, India has not always been a bystander either. New Delhi shares a complicated relationship with the Baloch movement(s). 1/n
dawn.com/news/1566145/w…
dawn.com/news/1566145/w…
I covered this aspect to a limited extent in my book 'My Enemy's Enemy' (OUP, 2017). Here is a short & edited excerpt (p.236-46) published in @htTweets in October 2017. 2/n
hindustantimes.com/books/excerpt-…
hindustantimes.com/books/excerpt-…
"Somewhere between Islamabad's vehement allegations of India's role in fomenting separatism and violence in Pakistan (esp. via Afghanistan) and New Delhi & Kabul's stony denials, lies the truth". p.236 3/n
To be clear, the China-angle to India's alleged support for Baloch rebels is not a post-BRI development. When in 2004, a full-blown insurgency broke-out in Balochistan, Chinese engineers were specifically targeted for variety of local (& geopolitical?) reasons. p.239 4/n
In 2009, Sharm-el-Sheikh, when India agreed to discuss allegations of supporting Baloch rebels: it was not coz Delhi was worried about exposure. To the contrary, it felt Pak's dossier wld corner Islamabad further. ISI had fudged intel (dossier was never made public) p.242 5/n
Of course, the Kulbhushan Jadhav affair, @janusmyth & @suhasinih's 2015 reports on BSKS elements supporting Baloch rebels in India; plus Modi's 2016 Independence Day mention of Balochistan & GB has diluted India's official stand of non-interference in Pak. dom. affairs. 6/n
If anything R&AW chiefs, at least since December 2014, have nearly always been Pakistan leads (if not, then known for their forward approach). None of this is evidence of India's involvement in Balochistan (or elsewhere). Such evidence is unlikely to emerge soon (if ever). 7/n
But given the larger geopolitical trends, India's worsening of relations w/ China & Pak. (incl. now), & its reliance on covert and overt hard power (examples abound) under an aggressive NSA, I will not be surprised if India indeed activated a sleeper cell, or maybe two. 8/n
Finally, if one assumes that Ind does have a role in the PSX attack, then the signalling is critical i.e. the more things heat up at the LAC & LoC, the more India will intensify its covert ops ... knowing full well that retribution is likely. 9/n
The question remains: Can India impose such costs over a long term w/o letting China & Pak. overwhelm its own domestic hotspots? Possible for sure, but I can't say much about the probability of success.
