Thread by @RobertCPalmer13

We need to put this 👇 #FakeNews about kids being less likely to catch or spread COVID-19 to bed.

@thecarolemalone stated it with confidence on #JeremyVine today

BUT:

Last week schools made up nearly 20% of outbreaks: schools are now 2nd after carehomes

Thread 1/

This graph shows the increase in outbreaks in schools. A PHE Report (24/06) shows schools now rank above hospitals for infections. The reopening of schools is a contributing factor to an overall increase in detections outside hospitals, as outbreaks start to rise again

2/

Leicester relocks as people rush to beaches & can't wait for pubs etc. to reopen. We need to pause & think about the infectivity rate of kids as schools are set to be reopened in full by September & parents threatened with fines for non-compliance

3/
bbc.co.uk/news/education…

When the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic struck kids were under-represented in studies including age-related incidence. Epidemiological investigations were not undertaken to identify the actual risk of adults getting the disease from children (or transmission from child-to-child).​

4/

Tests that directly analysed the viral loads in the respiratory tract of children have found that kids 'do not differ significantly' from adults, so kids may be as infectious as adults. The problem is that we only have good data on 1 of 3 vital questions regarding kids.

5/

Prof Russell Viner, President of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, said:

“There are three key questions: How much do children get COVID-19; how badly does it affect them; and do they spread it to others? We only have good data about the second of these".

6/

The govt has only focused on the effect of the disease on kids rather than infectivity or infection rate since day 1. Without vital data, an unlimited re-opening of schools could give the virus a free pass to enter the community in the absence of scientific evidence.

There's a lack of evidence of child transmission in studies. Some contract tracing studies found that infection rates are similar in kids & adults but, in general, studies don't assess this. More data on transmission from population-based studies is also urgently required.

7/

In a study published in The Lancet it was found:

‘That infection rates in young children are not lower than the population average (even if rates of clinical disease are).’

Most people remain blissfully unaware that kids are COVID-19 'shedders'.

8/

thelancet.com/journals/lanin…

Prof Simon Clarke stated:

‘While it’s currently unknown whether [kids] are as infectious as adults… we do know that they SHED just as much virus... which could see children expose their parents, grandparents & teachers to Covid-19.’

Yet, the govt & MSM maintain otherwise

9/

Ministers approached reducing the 2m social distance rule in purely economic terms to ensure more pupils can return to school & for pubs, restaurants & shops to reopen swiftly. But the virus hasn't peaked globally & outbreaks continue to spike in the UK.

10/

The No. of COVID-19 outbreaks in schools almost doubled last week. There were 44, which 'marks a sharp rise since schools reopened'. It's been almost doubling on a weekly basis since 1st June: before the reopen the No. of outbreaks didn't exceed 4.

11/

schoolsweek.co.uk/suspected-covi…

Anyone who claims (@thecarolemalone) that kids are less likely to catch or spread COVID-19 is being dangerously disengenous. With #JeremyVine airing these falsehoods w/o checking the facts public health is put at risk & the threat of a 2nd spike of the virus increases. STOP!

12/

SARS-COV-2 is still in the community & prevalence will rise with easing LD. A recent study stated:

'Any flexibility in implementing lockdown or sudden release from lockdown & failing to achieve contact tracing may lead to exponential transmission'

13/

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

The reality is that lockdown came too late & the piecemeal easing of restrictions (allowing prevalence to rise) precedes a sudden release from LD, with only inadequate manual contact tracing in place. Result: this will lead to exponential transmission once more.

14/

The govt’s initial resistance to locking-down cost lives. SAGE adviser, Prof Edmunds affirmed the deadly outcome of such dithering stating, ‘I wish we had gone into lockdown earlier – I think [the delay] has cost a lot of lives’. Releasing LD on Saturday will cost more lives

15/

Balancing the economy & public health will always be difficult but releasing LD restrictions without a functioning contact tracing app & the right data puts the UK under a high-risk of a 2nd more costly wave of COVID-19.

See this critical analysis:

16/

brexitshambles.com/the-brexit-gov…