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We've got three Dem polls this morning, all generally apocalyptic for the GOP
Even in TX-06 (and GOP+4 in the House race)
Biden+10 in IN-05 (and D+6 in the House)
Biden+2 in MO
A heavy grain of salt is in order for partisan polls. And the MO result is too far for me, but...
...Biden double-digit leads aren't outliers anymore. We're in uncharted territory and I think we should be pretty open-minded about what it would mean downballot.
I certainly don't think there's anything surprising about a poll showing an even race in TX-06 right now. D+10 in IN-05 is more of a stretch, but I'm not sure it's much crazier than Biden+14 nationally.
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
Joe Biden opens up a considerable 9 point lead across the battleground states likeliest to decide the presidency
MI: Biden+11
WI: Biden+11
PA: Biden+10
NC: Biden+9
AZ: Biden+7
FL: Biden+6
nytimes.com/2020/06/25/ups…
Democrats also hold an edge in several contested race for U.S. Senate
AZ: Kelly+9
MI: Peters+10
NC: Cunningham+3
Cooper (D)+11 in NCGOV
nytimes.com/2020/06/25/us/…
In many ways, the poll is unchanged since October. The Democratic party ID advantage remains at D+1. Voters say they backed Trump by 2.5 in '16. Biden's favorability rating is unchanged.
Yet the president's lead among white voters has all but vanished, at least for now.
Read 7 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
For the next early AM thread, let's talk about another strategic question facing a campaign: Biden's VP pick
The Biden campaign, it seems to me, faces many tough tasks here, but I'll simplify to three: 1) manage factional demands in the Dem coalition; 2) choose a qualified president/governing partner; 3) win the election, which may mean 'do no harm' with this lead (but not necessarily)
These questions exist regardless of the news environment, but they're undoubtedly mediated by the current news environment, and particularly the focus on criminal justice, protests, race relations, etc.
Read 31 tweets
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Nate Cohn
@Nate_Cohn
It's worth keeping issue salience in mind as we mull the deterioration in the president's standing, as well as his prospects for a comeback
Right now, the campaign focus is on coronavirus, criminal justice, protest, race relations, handling crises, etc.
These are not issues where the president has ever fared well in the polls, and as long as the campaign/public is focused on them, Trump is going to have a tough time
Trump's relative strengths, right now, are not as relevant. He still does better on the economy, for instance, but that's under the radar. Among no col whites, I'd guess he's still strong on immigration. But these issues aren't salient right now.
Read 11 tweets

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