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Inspired by the excellent @breakingthemark blog, I did a six month experiment with geometric balancing. Full write-up here: jeroen2307.com/2020/07/01/fin…
Geometric balancing is an investment strategy that revolves around frequent re-balancing of a portfolio of (hopefully) uncorrelated assets. A clear framework and trading discipline make investment decisions very simple.
Diversification was basic. Four assets (stocks, bonds, gold, cash). Index funds only (SPY, TLT, GLD). Re-balancing was done daily based on weights calculated by the Breaking the Market blog (thank you!).
The strategy outperformed the broader stock market and a diversified portfolio that had a fixed composition in terms of investment returns (higher) as well as volatility (lower).
Lower volatility seems like the biggest and most reliable benefit of this strategy. It manifested itself in a tangible reduction of stress and anxiety. Especially given the market’s recent levels of volatility.
During this experiment, it looks like diversification alone lowered volatility by about half. Re-balancing reduced it by half again. Geometric volatility was a quarter of market volatility.
Changing the starting date for the experiment shows that the volatility for an all stock and geometric balancing is reasonably consistent. The diversified portfolio's volatility is highly dependent on the % of cash.
Higher returns may be less reliable. The experiment only ran for six months, so difficult to draw conclusions. Simulating different starting dates show that returns vary a lot and would have been below market for more than half the other starting dates.
Returns vary similarly against the diversified portfolio over different starting dates, be it within a munch smaller range.
Going forward, I'll likely continue the experiment. Probably switching to weekly instead of daily re-balancing which doesn't seem to affect volatility too much. Given less frequent re-balancing, I'll set some alerts to not be caught off-guard by sudden market shifts.
Again, a big thank you to @breakingthemark for providing excellent insights into geometric balancing and calculating daily asset class weights. Go check out the blog: breakingthemarket.com
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