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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
@sfrantzman
Jul 2, 2020 • 4 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Iran's websites covering the #Natanz incident, Behrouz Kamalvandi, ( بهروز کمالوندی) Iran's Atomic Energy Organization spokesman, says no casualties, being investigated; this links it to the nuclear site

This is third mysterious incident in a week ImageImage
It comes after the June 30 Sina Medical Center (مرکز پزشکی سینا) incident on Shariati st ( شریعتی ); in this article he denies there were radioactive materials or nuclear aspects to the center, oddly why deny it"? Image
then there is the Khojir explosion, initially said to be at Parchin,
jpost.com/middle-east/ir…
A map of the recent mysterious incidents in Iran, the June 25 explosion near Parchin-Khojir, the medical center and now Natanz nuclear facility; #breakingnews Image

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 10
I see sometimes comparisons between the war in Gaza and the battle of Mosul, comparing the number of terrorists estimated killed and number of civilians. I think these comparisons require an additional layer of analysis. It’s not just about numbers and estimates, it really should be about the end result too.

I was in Mosul and Gaza so I know something about both.
Let’s just say that Hamas had 30,000 fighters and ISIS had 5-10,000 in Mosul maybe. If you go in with a measure of trying to get civilian casualties at 1:1 or something, is that really a good goal, or is the BETTER goal to defeat the enemy and control the area and end the war as fast as possible with minimum civilian deaths?
If the goal is just numbers then you resign yourself to trying to eliminate terrorists but you don’t put a priority on defeating them. And so you likely prolong the suffering of everyone. You can get your civilian casualties down to 1:1 but if your goal is to eliminate 15,000 terrorists or something as “victory” then you resign yourself to killing 15,000 civilians. That’s not good.
Read 11 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 9
One of the greatest misconceptions of the war, in my view, is that Hamas has taken heavy losses and is somehow on the ropes.

It is not. Hamas has returned to 90 percent of Gaza, mostly because Israel left every place it "cleared." The evidence for this is that Israel has gone repeatedly back into areas like Zaytun to fight Hamas again...it literally returns immediately after Israel leaves.
There is zero evidence that Hamas is under pressure. Hamas feels it is winning. Hamas may have lost thousands of its fighters, including senior commanders. But Hamas has ALWAYS been willing to take losses. It's entire history is full of it losing men, and having them detained and eliminated.
If Hamas was under pressure we would be seeing concessions. Israel claimed in November during the first hostage deal that pressure brings hostage released. Well...there is NO EVIDENCE that pressure was maintained and Hamas learned immediately that Israel was going to leave most of Gaza, all it had to do was wait.
Read 19 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 9
yes the goal is to keep Hamas in power, a goal of the west, and of Russia, Ankara and other countries, since at least 2012 and likely before. I don't know why, but Hamas is a group that a lot of countries want to run Gaza, even though it does tremendous harm and even though it massacred 1,000 people on Oct. 7...it's the most favored group in the entire region. Hamas gets more support than the PA, it gets more high level meetings, and it is a kind of consensus that Hamas should not just run Gaza, but I think quietly a lot of countries want to position it to run the West Bank also.
After 2007 when Hamas illegally took over Gaza and set in motion numerous wars...a decision was made to have western allies, who backed Hamas, to also host their leaders...the goal here (as with the Taliban) was to bring them to power. It took more than a decade...but they are on the verge of the goal.
Those who back Hamas are long-term planners. They knew it wouldn't happen overnight. They wanted to position Hamas to take over more areas when the PA leadership gets old. So they chose 2023 as the year to launch the big attack and they knew that after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, they would get more backing from Moscow and Beijing.
Read 11 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 8
Here's a question. According to the optimistic data on the Gaza war, the IDF has defeated up to 19 of the Hamas "battalions" and eliminated up to 14,000 terrorists and wounded the same number (i.e 28,000) and detained others. So if you add it up...you'd get the picture that Hamas barely has any men left, just a few thousand or so.

But let me ask this...how many men has Hamas recruited in seven months of war.
One of the things that the stories about Hamas "battalions" never seems to take into account is the fact that Hamas has access to more men. It has plenty of weapons stockpiled over a decade and a half. It doesn't require men to do much more than use rifles and RPGs nowadays.
I don't know about other terrorist insurgencies, in terms of how many men ISIS could recruit a month for instance, but clearly Hamas can recruit more people. Can it train them? Not so well. But Hamas has returned to control most of Gaza. It usually returns with plain clothes men, but they can access weapons usually quite easily if they need to.
Read 17 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 8
The story of the US delaying munitions for Israel is getting a lot of coverage, the BBC call it the "biggest warning yet for Israel."

So here's my question. While countries are growing frustrated with the long war in Gaza, have there been any real repercussions for Hamas since Oct. 7 on the global stage?
What I mean is this. Hamas is hosted by two western allies, in Doha and Ankara. There were no repercussions for Hamas leaders in Doha after Oct. 7. While the US and western leaders expressed support for Israel, they didn't move to sanction those leaders more or put them on trial for crimes against humanity.
Hamas leaders openly celebrated in Doha on Oct. 7. They faced no repercussions from the US, and Doha is the major non-NATO ally. And since Oct. 7 the Hamas leaders have jetted around the region, hosted as if they were a state by Turkey, a NATO member. So Hamas has gotten the message after Oct. 7 that there are no repercussions for its attack.
Read 14 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
May 7
This story encapsulates what I've always felt about these talks since the beginning. Basically Israel is on one side of the table and Hamas is working via Doha, and Doha is a western ally, so in essence there is a lot that goes on behind the scenes and Israel is always on the losing end of these talks because Hamas is hosted by a "major non-NATO ally" which gives Hamas huge leverage (more than Israel).

THIS is what makes Hamas different than Hezbollah. If Hezbollah had done an Oct. 7 it would be more. isolated because it isn't hosted by western allies. Hamas is indirectly allied with the West and this means it has a huge upper hand in the hostage talks.
It's also important to understand how disastrous these talks have been. After the first hostage deal in November, Israel's defense establishment put out a narrative that military pressure would lead to more deals. Hamas violated the first deal and the released hostages told stories about the abuse of the remaining hostages.
However, rather than there being more urgency to pressure Hamas and get more deals, after the first deal the pressure on Hamas was reduced. First Israel left most of northern Gaza and Hamas returned.
Read 16 tweets

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