Vaccines are our best route out of restrictions & can do the heavy lifting. Lockdowns are caused bc of the hospitalisation rate of this virus & the large # of susceptible people -> leads to exponential growth in cases & stretched health services. Vaccines address both. (thread)
Israel is a glimpse of the future & how to lift restrictions sustainably & let people mix -> vaccinate about 85% of over-16 population, start vaccinating children when approval given & build up testing (PCR, lateral flow & wastewater) to keep on top of outbreaks that emerge.
European countries & US sitting on unused AZ supply. They should give these doses abroad to countries that need & will use them. Supply is the biggest bottleneck now to getting vaccines out- not money or logistics. Vaccinating the world will help stop the emergence of variants.
Whether we like it or not, int'l travel will open up using vaccine passports, testing & screening. Better to get ahead of it & manage this process at a global level than have a country-by-country piecemeal approach. If anything we've learned how important it is to cooperate now.
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If it's raining outside but modelling tells you it's sunny, do you believe what you can see and the clear data? Triangulation of modelling, observational data, & common sense is vital. More complex doesn't mean more accurate. bmj.com/content/369/bm…
If you have very few people testing positive, positivity is <0.5%, genetic sequencing shows that 1st strains were eliminated, what does this tell you about level of COVID? Or believe complex, untransparent mathematical models w/ predetermined assumptions? heraldscotland.com/news/18931916.…
Some modellers also saying last Jan 2020 that 80% of Chinese population would get COVID-19 and this would be uncontrollable. Guess what? China controlled it. So did Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Australia, NZ -> the list goes on. Public health measures can and do work.
Scientists investigating whether it's possible to be re-infected with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in S. Africa. Antibodies from previous infection didn't recognise new variant in 21/44 cases but 🤞 T-cells might. Precarious position & points towards need for max suppression.
Good news: we know how to control COVID. Countries have done it. We need: restrictions until #s low & buy-in of population that there's a plan, robust test/trace/isolate, and very tight border restrictions. Clear COVID, open domestic economy fully & firefight as outbreaks arise.
Countries that have the resources & political will should clearly eliminate COVID-19. Living with this virus is too dangerous to health & too destructive to the economy and society. Time to pivot from flu plan onto SARS plan. Better now than in a year's time.
Scotland going into strict restrictions tonight for Jan to handle new variant. Children under 12 still allowed to play outside in larger groups and are excluded from 2 person outside limit for meetings.
Schools remain online learning for Jan (except for vulnerable/key worker kids) bc of substantial community transmission (& need to drive this lower) & considerable uncertainty & data gaps about role of children in transmission of new variant. Precautionary approach.
If you want schools back open for in-person learning, please please abide by restrictions so that we can all work together to get community transmission down.
Happy Sunday! ❄️ Bad news: this new variant is spreading quickly & our current restrictions don’t seem to be enough. Xmas & NYE going to make it worse. Please be cautious & keep distancing/avoid indoor/crowded places!! Just need to get through this hardest period until Spring.
We all want schools open. But the challenge is keeping schools open with high transmission. Cases will keep arising in schools & bubbles sent home repeatedly. That’s not sustainable education. We all have to work together to break chains of transmission & get our numbers down.
What should govt be doing? Clear messaging is the start and using the tools we have: vaccines, mass testing, supported isolation, enhanced restrictions with economic support, pausing schools (except for certain groups) for 2-3 week to assess latest evidence & travel restrictions.
Happy Monday! ☀️ This is truly the worst time & normal to feel low- new variant spreading quickly, depths of winter, NHS under pressure. But we will get through with vaccines, testing, weather change in Spring & Summer, & continuing to look out for each other. Better days ahead!
If nothing else maybe European countries will realise by March that the East Asia & Pacific model of managing this crisis is optimal and pivot towards that. They’ve had a year to learn by then. All other roads have led to worse health & economic outcomes.
And in less than a year from detecting a novel virus, we have multiple tests, effective therapeutics & at least 3 vaccines. 👏 Just imagine where we will be in a year from now? It is not hopeless at all- loads of progress has been made. Delaying infections now makes sense.
This view completely misses that lockdown is caused by the high hospitalisation rate of Covid & pressure on health services. Which is also young people ill. And that the case fatality rate can jump to 10% if people, young or old, can’t get medical care like fluids or oxygen.
And to be clear, I’m not pro-lockdown. I’m anti-death, anti-disability & anti-economic pain & unemployment. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…