Scotland moves to 'Beyond 0' on 9 August. Some measures remain in place: face coverings indoors, test/trace/isolate (isolate if test positive, contacts can be released from isolation with double vax & neg PCR test), home working when possible, & local outbreak response.
Schools will retain same mitigations for start of school year (for 6 weeks & then reviewed) including ventilation & CO2 monitors. But full bubbles no longer asked to isolate- more targeted approach to avoid disruption. Caution due to mixing of large groups of unvaccinated kids.
Mixed feelings about nightclubs re-opening. Great for socializing/mental health/jobs, but high-risk environment for transmission. Have to continue to encourage younger people to get vaccinated & only go out if feeling well. Stay home if symptomatic (no coughing in the club).
Seeing lots of unhelpful panic over today’s numbers. Obviously caution needed but most important marker is whether link between cases and moderate to severe disease being broken. This is a different wave than previous ones. We are in new territory.
More here. I’m very concerned about South Asia, Latin America & Sub-Saharan Africa now. They’re in crisis and serious trouble. Not enough vaccines, not enough oxygen & hospital beds & no economic support for people to stay home.
Even New Zealand now going same way given vaccines. They avoided the death & repeated lockdowns that Europe had, but now need sustainable exit. Bloomfield: ‘There’s no doubt that having as much of the population vaccinated as possible is key to us being able to open the border.”
Happy Mon!☀️Instead of arguing about lockdown (it’s been a harsh year), we need to prepare for future pandemics: stop spillover of viruses from animals to humans, ⬆️ vaccine manufacturing capacity globally & prepare to move from sequencing to jabs in arms within a few months.
Lockdowns have been a last resort measure to keep health services from collapsing. No one wants restrictions given the high social & economic cost they carry. So how do we prepare for future pandemics so we don't need lockdown/release cycles, like they've been used in the West?
We need to reduce: number of people who are susceptible to a new pathogen (which leads to exponential growth) & hospitalizations/severe disease (which strains health services). Invest in science for solutions to both of these. We need rapid diagnostics, vaccines, & therapeutics.
Vaccines are our best route out of restrictions & can do the heavy lifting. Lockdowns are caused bc of the hospitalisation rate of this virus & the large # of susceptible people -> leads to exponential growth in cases & stretched health services. Vaccines address both. (thread)
Israel is a glimpse of the future & how to lift restrictions sustainably & let people mix -> vaccinate about 85% of over-16 population, start vaccinating children when approval given & build up testing (PCR, lateral flow & wastewater) to keep on top of outbreaks that emerge.
European countries & US sitting on unused AZ supply. They should give these doses abroad to countries that need & will use them. Supply is the biggest bottleneck now to getting vaccines out- not money or logistics. Vaccinating the world will help stop the emergence of variants.
If it's raining outside but modelling tells you it's sunny, do you believe what you can see and the clear data? Triangulation of modelling, observational data, & common sense is vital. More complex doesn't mean more accurate. bmj.com/content/369/bm…
If you have very few people testing positive, positivity is <0.5%, genetic sequencing shows that 1st strains were eliminated, what does this tell you about level of COVID? Or believe complex, untransparent mathematical models w/ predetermined assumptions? heraldscotland.com/news/18931916.…
Some modellers also saying last Jan 2020 that 80% of Chinese population would get COVID-19 and this would be uncontrollable. Guess what? China controlled it. So did Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, S. Korea, Australia, NZ -> the list goes on. Public health measures can and do work.
Scientists investigating whether it's possible to be re-infected with a new variant of SARS-CoV-2 in S. Africa. Antibodies from previous infection didn't recognise new variant in 21/44 cases but 🤞 T-cells might. Precarious position & points towards need for max suppression.
Good news: we know how to control COVID. Countries have done it. We need: restrictions until #s low & buy-in of population that there's a plan, robust test/trace/isolate, and very tight border restrictions. Clear COVID, open domestic economy fully & firefight as outbreaks arise.
Countries that have the resources & political will should clearly eliminate COVID-19. Living with this virus is too dangerous to health & too destructive to the economy and society. Time to pivot from flu plan onto SARS plan. Better now than in a year's time.