TL;DR: Most cars, both new & CPO, are gone from Tesla Japan site. Used market remain tepid. Update on Model 3 order tracker.
S/X/3 summary.
Only 5 cars are currently listed. Many of the unlisted are demo/loaners that won't count as new. Most likely, they unlisted display cars as well.
To recap, they sold up to 40 new cars in Apr/May. ~90 new cars were unlisted in Q2. My guess is that they did liquidate some old demo/loaners & registered some new ones to replace them. They've done that before.
My estimate of Q2 reg. has been ~60, but could be as high as 80. Insignificant, not even rounding error, I know, but that's where we are.
JAIA data will be out on Monday.
Update on JPN Model 3 order tracker.
Because of the tracker issues, a lot of back-filling in the last few wks.
YTD, 60 orders reported (221 last yr), likely some unfilled orders from last yr & some already filled from inventory in Q1.
Given ~20% response rate early, I estimate 300~400 backlog.
A couple of wks ago, a forum poster reported 200~400 backlog according to a Tesla sales rep, so that's consistent w/ my estimate above.
Reported mix so far this yr is ~1/3 each of P, LR, & SR+.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
If anything S.Korea had more cases than usual, but fewer hospitalization. That makes sense, given that RSV is worse in <1. Delayed infection is a good thing.
What's ironic is that, if you follow the logic of "immunity debt" enthusiasts (charitably, tbf), you end up concluding that "freedom day" was even dumber than we already thought.
1/
For one, we know infection-induced immunity to many of these pathogens is fairly shot-lived. i.e. what happened yrs ago doesn't really matter.
2/
For another, not all pathogens are created equal. Some are more infectious/harder to control.
3/
Variant-specific PCR says suspected BA.5 was ~3/4 during 7/5~7/11. Almost all suspected BA.5 for the latest wk (7/12~7/18).
2/
Similar story for Kobe. L452R+ > 80% for 7/11~7/17 (1st table). Majority of sequences (2nd table) from 7/4~7/10 were BA.5. They show BA.2.12.1 under BA.2 in ( ), BA.2.75 in [ ].
Mini-thread on JPN Covid mortality data wrt "from" vs. "with".
(Meaning to do this since MHLW advisory board posted some useful data a month ago, so here it is.)
tl;dr: Covid is still the primary cause in majority of reported deaths & Omicron is bad.
1/
MHLW guideline essentially requires all deaths by Covid patients be reported, so the reported #s include some incidental cases. So what % is incidental?
2/
First, data from Kanagawa pref. (pop. 9.2m, 2nd largest) on the "primary" causes of death in Jan/Feb '22 (almost all Omicron).
Primary cause: 53.2%
Not primary cause: 32.1%
Undetermined: 14.7%
Note that "not primary cause" doesn't mean it wasn't a contributing factor.
2 lines overlapping for Alpha = ~2% CFR
Same for Delta & Omicron = ~0.3% CFR
Note the differences in Y-axes.
Most seniors got vaccinated after the peak of Alpha wave. Others during the Delta wave.
1/
Omicron wave is likely to peak next wk (likely already did in southern/western 1/3 of the country), so deaths likely to peak in late Feb. Looking like it'll be the deadliest wave so far.
2/
Roughly,
Spring '20: 1k
Summer/Autumn '20: 1k
Winter '20-'21: 7.5k
Spring '21 (Alpha): 7.5k
Summer '21 (Delta): 3k
Winter '22 (Omicron): ~800 so far.
Per case severity is clearly lower relative to pre-vaxx peaks, but high transmissibility makes that less relevant.
3/