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Whether Labor wins #EdenMonaroVotes or not, since we’re going to hear every spin possible on whether @KristyMcBain and @AlboMP ‘overcame their challenge’ the media set for them, here is my thread on what the end result ‘means’ for state of Morrison’s leadership. A thread👇🏻
I recall when by election was called, I told @deniseshrivell on #Auspol Live podcast I didn’t think Labor had a chance. I thought that during a pandemic, when Morrison was perceived to be dealing with it fairly well, it was only natural his ‘hero’ frame would send votes his way.
I’ve been proved wrong about that. Liberals don’t appear to have had any discernible swing aligning with a heroic Morrison frame, nor has the Liberal’s campaign of ‘Labor delivers instability’ spin had any benefit for them. The Nationals went backwards. This is bad for Morrison.
Don’t forget, Morrison knew he was on the nose in Eden-Monaro. He’s got the numbers on that clearly. Why else did he stay away? People in Eden-Monaro haven’t forgotten about his failures during bushfires, even if the media have. Covid hasn’t changed their opinion of him.
In even worse news for him, the full extent of the economic depression Australia is experiencing isn’t known yet - that’s going to be a shock of reality which shows everyone Morrison’s Libs haven’t stimulated economy, and don’t have any plans to substantially stimulate.
JobKeeper, although it left millions behind, has been popular, yet Morrison got no benefit from that in Eden-Monaro. He is also soon to announce the end of JobKeeper, against the expert advice of economists who say the economy is not ready for this withdrawal of support.
All this means Morrison has no where to go but down. Add to his problems, Victorians have seen Morrison completely abdicate responsibility for covid in their state because it’s so obvious he’s not got a clue and Daniel Andrews is the only leader they need right now.
So, in a nutshell, Morrison should be very very worried. And what about Labor? Well Labor are constantly told they’re failures and they won’t win anything and there are leadership rumblings, and that the country should care about Victorian branch stacking when voting in NSW etc.
Considering that, and considering Mike Kelly’s personal popularity in Eden-Monaro, Kristy McBain has done an incredible job in this by election, with Albo’s help. I know because I was involved that volunteers have been campaigning for weeks. That campaigning has worked.
You will hear commentators say ‘well Labor’s primary vote is down’. There were 14 names on the ballot - so of course Labor’s primary vote is down. But, what’s important is where preferences flowed. Voters aren’t stupid. They know a vote for Labor is a preference above Libs.
You’ll also hear Labor only did well because of Shooters and Fishers preferences. This wasn’t a preference deal. I don’t know why SFP preferenced Labor, and their supporters chose to follow their advice, but either way, this is Morrison’s problem, not Labor’s. Ask him about it.
Morrison is so unscrutinised, so taken-for-granted by vast majority of media, their rule of thumb is to assume things that go wrong for him are external to him. Let’s see range of excuses for his failure to swing votes to government during international crisis - anyone but him.
Whatever they say, whether Labor wins or not once final votes are counted, this is a terrible outcome for Morrison and he should be very worried about next 2 years in lead up to 2022 election. Voters have wised up to him. No cyber attack or defence spend will change that. End.
PS. One last thought. Pork barreling also didn’t do anything for Morrison. Told you he’s been seen! He wouldn’t have won in 2019 without Sports Rorts. So where does that leave him in 2022? He’s got nothing.
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