MT GLOBAL MARKETS Momentum & Sentiment weekly 05Jul20 recap wk27 / focus wk28 thread 1/n
• ESI/PMIs/ISM strong rebound
• NFP true long road of recovery 14.6mln to go
• RiskON wk, Tech unstoppable (until it corrects)
• Reflation traffic light turned yellow
• ESI/PMIs/ISM strong rebound
• NFP true long road of recovery 14.6mln to go
• RiskON wk, Tech unstoppable (until it corrects)
• Reflation traffic light turned yellow
2/ European Business and Consumer confidence crawling out of the dungeon ... the long road of recovery started
3/ Global Manufacturing PMIs surveys improved further... but not out of the woods yet...
4/ global Manufacturing and Services PMI June survey overview on the matrix.
still in the basement, but first steps taken out of it.
amazing the dovish cuts & QE global central bank's programs.
still in the basement, but first steps taken out of it.
amazing the dovish cuts & QE global central bank's programs.
5/ monster move in the ISM new orders.
debate what you want about the diffusion index, this is a huge comeback and whoever used ISM as <the> business theme, can't ignore it.
huge.
debate what you want about the diffusion index, this is a huge comeback and whoever used ISM as <the> business theme, can't ignore it.
huge.
6/ US Citi economic surprise index (oscillator) is also huge. estimates too low, data much better. but this is supposed to be a reflation story too.
"all-time-high" means nothing on an oscillator, but there is a huge disconnect.
"all-time-high" means nothing on an oscillator, but there is a huge disconnect.
7/ US jobless claims very disappointing though, this curve is the one which should NOT flatten. Continued claims even increased.
8/ NFP came at +4.8mln "biggest increase in history" according to Trump.
That's true, but it comes after the biggest collapse, and these are not new jobs, they are recovered ones.
14.6mln to go back to square one.
long road of recovery. hopefully everyone get the job back !
That's true, but it comes after the biggest collapse, and these are not new jobs, they are recovered ones.
14.6mln to go back to square one.
long road of recovery. hopefully everyone get the job back !
9/ while some soft and hard date improve, it's the first time that there was no longer term bear market. FED all-in. Macro model and stocks used to move in tandem, until they didn't
10/ here is the full YoY chart
11/ SPX valuations... whatever...
12/ SPX P/E going parabolic.
13/ NDX into ATH again, and breadth is fading and diverging. I think that index could be bought at more attractive levels within the next 3 months.
14/ SPX vola collapsed again last week, and with this the term structure into contango until election.
15/ global cross assets performance last week RiskON, with $QQQ $XLK $LQD making new 52wk high and Chinese SSEC at 5Y high with a strong rebound after strong PMI
16/ more or less half term report
global assets matrix YTD performance
global assets matrix YTD performance
17/ wk27 momentum trend and exhaustion scores
18/ next week RBA with unchanged expected cash rate. and I think they let QE do their work for the time being and I expect no increase there.
19/ AUDUSD back to pre COVID levels and nothing to trade about
20/ then Monday we have NMI... and after a super move in the ISM, a lot catch up to do. Rebound in confidence is what the doctor also ordered.
21/ also next week Italy Retail Sales and Industrial output... The folks have been tremendous pressure and both on the consumer side and manufacturing side a strong come back would be a great sign.
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