Thread by @syrpis

Various tweets from @LeaveHQ are getting a lot of attention today. To sum up: a) Brexit is not going well (agree); and b) this is remainers' fault for failing to compromise (strongly disagree). Thread. 1/13

In order to win the referendum, the various leave groups emphasised different things. Collectively, they were a deliberately broad church. 2/

Arguments from sovereignty coexisted with arguments against immigration; arguments for a mutually beneficial relationship with the EU coexisted with arguments for the destruction of the EU. Etc etc. 3/

The (4) years since June 2016 have seen a continuation of the same, pre-referendum approach. (I'll pause to note that those in charge seem to be good at campaigning, but not so good at governing.) 4/

For months all we had was 'Brexit means Brexit'. Then, the Withdrawal Agreement did not deal with the future relationship in anything more than outline, aspirational, detail. 5/

With less than 6 months til the end of transition, it remains unclear whether the Govt wants a comprehensive or a 'skinny' FTA, or whether it does in fact prefer no deal. 6/

I have several thoughts on why this might be.

First, those in charge disagree on the best way forward.

Second, they know that once Brexit is 'reified', it will, almost inevitably, lose some support. 7/

And third, any future relationship deal will, in economic and geo-political terms, be a significant backward step. No amount of fantasy new deals with the RoW will compensate for the loss of the UK's relationship with the EU. 8/

'Remainers', and many 'experts', have been pointing out both the flaws and the contradictions inherent in Brexit for years. 9/

It was always for the Govt to 'reify' Brexit - to identify a negotiating position, to explain that to people, and to seek to reach agreement with the EU. 10/

Instead, we've had 'sloganeering populism'. The best deal in history; sunlit uplands; close trading relationship; no loss of sovereignty. It is an incoherent mess. 11/

Whatever is delivered by the end of 2020 will, in all likelihood, disappoint many on the leave side, and all on the remain side. 12/

The blame for that lies with successive Conservative Governments; not with those who have been pointing out that what they have been promising is impossible and undeliverable. 13/13

PS I'll link to a couple of blog posts, which show where the Govt went wrong.

This shows the lack of a plan, and the lack of any consensus-building up to Oct 2017 (though how the Overton window has shifted since then...).

legalresearch.blogs.bris.ac.uk/2017/10/a-call…

And this, with @clairgammage, shows why Theresa May's withdrawal agreement was likely to be opposed (as it indeed was) by remainers and leavers alike (it was rejected by historic margins in the HoC...).

legalresearch.blogs.bris.ac.uk/2018/11/why-th…