My Authors
Read all threads
China, India, & McMahon Line: I am not a IMINT specialist, & don't have access to latest satellite imagery, but here are some images & thoughts on the McMahon Line near the Myanmar trijunction at Walong. Things can get ugly, & quickly, despite de-escalation at Galwan 1/n
Kibithoo is the last major mil. outpost of the Indian army w/ another small helipad just up north, before the official (sense of) McMahon Line line (acc. to Google). Unlike '62, IA can reach these positions via newly built roads & have been patrolling aggressively. 2/n
But so has the PLA. Acc. to A. Shukla's report, the PLA is patrolling till this point where 10Sikh Li has visible presence. This is troubling enough. But another look at the forward helipad shows that another jungle road connects it to the Chinese side? 3/n
To be clear, there is heavy civilian concentration on both sides as we go deep. Walong on the Indian side, and Xiachayu on the Chinese side. But now let's look at POTENTIAL PLA infra. north of Kibithoo 4/n
These are the first few structures along the river and in the jungles. I DON'T KNOW if they are civilian or for mil. purpose. Could be either (& they are likely old) 5/n
But this one just south of Xiachayu and north of Kibithoo, does seem to be meant for mil. Again, I might be wrong. But, if I'm not, then its size signals the intent of the PLA on quick & rel. big mobilisation. In comparison, IA cap. south of the line is rel. ltd. 6/n
To be clear, this thread is based on a Google Maps search, w/o detailed understanding of mil. postures of either side in the area. But, just this, offers some insight into the mobilisation capacity of both sides in case of standoff. 7/n
Worth noting is also the road connectivity. Though India much better poised today than it was in 1962, so is China. There are multiple small routes (via jungle, and along the river) that seem to be jutting into what the maps show as Indian territory. 8/n
This doesn't suggest that a standoff akin to Galwan/P'gong Tso will occur. But it does beg the question: what if it does? ... given the mil. mob. by both sides, it might be worth exploring these areas in more detail (& I am not even talking abt Tawang & Dibang yet). 9/n
There is relatively higher civilian concentration in these areas than in Ladakh. And the consequences, and calculus of a mil. confrontation here wld look v. different from what we've seen in the western sector. Esp. with Tawang also being coveted by Beijing. 10/n
Having said all this, one can only hope that the ongoing de-escalation, and 'moving back' of troops in Galwan (if not P'gong Tso) will culminate into a fruitful dialogue between the two sides. Escalation is likely to cost a lot more than many can imagine. 11/n
On that note: a request to specialists such as @Nrg8000. Is it possible to have a better sense of how things are developing in the Eastern sector? Thank you.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Keep Current with Avinash Paliwal

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!