Q and A:
1. Do over 90% of climate scientists expect 1.7 - 2°C by 2042? YES
2. Will 1.7 - 2°C of global warming threaten to wreck basic crops? YES
3. Do over 90% of climate scientists expect temperatures high enough to be crop-wrecking to hit by '2038 or so'? YES
THREAD
1/
1. Do over 90% of climate scientists expect 1.7 - 2°C by 2042? YES
2. Will 1.7 - 2°C of global warming threaten to wreck basic crops? YES
3. Do over 90% of climate scientists expect temperatures high enough to be crop-wrecking to hit by '2038 or so'? YES
THREAD
1/
The vast majority of climate scientists would expect 1.7 - 2°C (or more, but not less) by ~2040.
I'd say this isn't a terribly controversial statement as temp rise seems to be 0.25- 0.3C per decade, and we're at 1.2/1.3/1.4C depending on the baseline.
2/
I'd say this isn't a terribly controversial statement as temp rise seems to be 0.25- 0.3C per decade, and we're at 1.2/1.3/1.4C depending on the baseline.
2/
It's worth grasping that crops are already beginning to be really severely affected *now* at 1.2/1.3/1.4C (depending on your baseline choice), before looking at how 1.7 - 2C will be enough to wreck key crops.
'In the last 5 years...enormous problems'
newsroom.northumbria.ac.uk/pressreleases/…
3/
'In the last 5 years...enormous problems'
newsroom.northumbria.ac.uk/pressreleases/…
3/
These threads paint a worrying picture.
Extraordinary drought and startling crop threats already here in 2020:
The climate crisis is already beginning to undermine food security now:
Locusts in 2020:
4/
Extraordinary drought and startling crop threats already here in 2020:
The climate crisis is already beginning to undermine food security now:
Locusts in 2020:
4/
Is 1.7 - 2°C a threat to basic crops? YES.
'Risks of simultaneous crop failure...increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C, so surpassing the 1.5°C threshold will represent a threat to global food security.'
We're already moving into crisis.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
5/
'Risks of simultaneous crop failure...increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2 °C, so surpassing the 1.5°C threshold will represent a threat to global food security.'
We're already moving into crisis.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
5/
North Africa:
'Crop yields are expected to decline by 30% with 1.5-2°C warming' ⚠️
m.huffpost.com/us/entry/70564…
Extreme conditions even below 2C.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
the Middle East and North Africa: the most water-stressed region on Earth by far:
sciencealert.com/17-countries-a…
6/
'Crop yields are expected to decline by 30% with 1.5-2°C warming' ⚠️
m.huffpost.com/us/entry/70564…
Extreme conditions even below 2C.
link.springer.com/article/10.100…
the Middle East and North Africa: the most water-stressed region on Earth by far:
sciencealert.com/17-countries-a…
6/
If today's high emissions nightmare continues the damage to European crops looks set to be dire. Even with emissions cuts yields will still likely be badly hit.
(the whole thread includes a range of threats including Arctic sea ice loss implications)
7/
(the whole thread includes a range of threats including Arctic sea ice loss implications)
7/
'Even if warming was limited to 1.5 K, all major producing countries would still face notable warming-induced yield reduction.'
1.5C looks like it could deliver major crises. Risks to crops appear set to grow immensely from 1.6 to 2C.
8/
nature.com/articles/s4189…
1.5C looks like it could deliver major crises. Risks to crops appear set to grow immensely from 1.6 to 2C.
8/
nature.com/articles/s4189…
'Even at low levels of warming, the most vulnerable countries will suffer serious impacts. In Sub-Saharan Africa, for example, 1.5°C of warming globally by the 2030s could bring a 40% loss in maize cropping areas.'
9/
reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2…
9/
reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2…
'While reports often reference a 1.5°C to 2°C “safe” level of warming that would avoid the most devastating impacts from climate change, agricultural systems...are IMMEDIATELY VULNERABLE to any additional warming.'
10/
csis.org/analysis/clima…
10/
csis.org/analysis/clima…
Heat & drought have a negative impact on soil organisms protecting plants
"This increases the plants' susceptibility to soil-borne pathogens"
In view of...climate change, this may significantly increase the risk of plant diseases and crop failures'
11/
sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/…
"This increases the plants' susceptibility to soil-borne pathogens"
In view of...climate change, this may significantly increase the risk of plant diseases and crop failures'
11/
sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/…
