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Job postings are 25% below last year's trend, as of July 3. New weekly update from @indeed.

Postings have gradually improved from the May 1 low of -39%, but aren't even halfway back up from the bottom.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

1/
Job postings for lower-wage jobs have rebounded, while higher-wage jobs have struggled. Lower-wage hiring might respond more quickly to shifts in demand, while higher-wage hiring is more frozen by longer-term uncertainty.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

2/
Retail and driving job postings are back around last year's trend.

But arts & entertainment and hospitality & tourism jobs are still down by half.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

3/
Job postings are down most in larger, richer metros, where more people work in jobs that can be done from home. Where people can work from home, retail, food, and personal service sectors are suffering.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

4/
In metros where COVID19 cases surged in June, the trend in job postings has stayed on course for now.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

5/
People have started to distance more in metros where COVID19 cases surged in June. Mobility has flattened in those metros, while increasing in places that avoided the surge.

The lowered mobility in June-surge metros hasn't hit job postings -- yet.

hiringlab.org/2020/07/06/job…

6/end
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More from @JedKolko see all

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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
Core unemployment jumped in June to 5.9% from 5.0% in May. It's rising at an accelerating rate.

Core unemployment removes temporary layoffs and adds the marginally attached.
While the headline rate fell in June thanks to fewer temporary layoffs, the core unemployment rate is climbing.

That's the chronic pain that will follow this acute crisis.
For more on the core unemployment rate: nytimes.com/2020/06/15/ups…
Read 4 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
The June COVID19 surge is much more widespread than the April spike. It is not concentrated in a few counties or hotspots.

More people live in counties where cases per capita are high and rising today than at any point in the pandemic. Image
The new-case rate for the median county is at a high -- well above the April level.

In April, new cases were more highly concentrated in New York and a few other hotspots, raising the national average more than the median county rate. But the current surge is more widespread. Image
There might be some comfort if a given number of new cases is more widely spread -- if that means the cases are less likely to overwhelm a local health care system.

But if local transmission is rapid, then surges in many places is a lot worse than surges in fewer places.
Read 3 tweets
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Jed Kolko
@JedKolko
For the first time, the COVID19 new-case rate in red counties is as high as in blue counties.

1/
Death rates remain substantially higher in blue counties, though the gap has narrowed.

2/
Why the difference? Probably not only increased testing in red places. Positive test rates have gone up, not down, in many large Sunbelt states, while holding stable or declining in many big blue states.

3/
Read 4 tweets

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