As I've said a few times, I think we have to be pretty open-minded about what the map might look if we're seriously looking at a double-digit Biden advantage, and South Carolina is one of several states that's at least somewhat interesting in this environment
Consider this: In '18, the Democrats gained about 5 pts over Clinton's '16 margin in the popular vote. If Biden was up 12, hypothetically (!), that's another 5 points further. That's enough to draw another tier of states to the brink of competitiveness
Last summer, we put out some estimates of where we thought Trump's approval rating stood in 11/18, based on the exits, CCES, votecast, and House results. Once you get past the standard battlegrounds, you reach TX/OH/GA.
Not far behind is a less competitive bunch: AK/UT/SC/KS/MT
Not far behind is a less competitive bunch: AK/UT/SC/KS/MT
Those estimates added up to Trump approval at -10 among RVs. He's probably a net-5 points further back right now. So it's pretty likely that, today, the president's approval rating is underwater in several of those states.
It's hard to predict where.
The current Civiqs estimates--and I'd guess they're not great in small states--offers one picture that's at least worth considering, albeit with caution. Otherwise, we're guessing based on demographics and that's not easy. civiqs.com/results/approv…
The current Civiqs estimates--and I'd guess they're not great in small states--offers one picture that's at least worth considering, albeit with caution. Otherwise, we're guessing based on demographics and that's not easy. civiqs.com/results/approv…
For now, all of these are kinda maybe-plausibly competitive in this national environment, and we'll just have to wait and see whether any of them break toward Dems (IN '08, for ex), or whether they all kinda hang back on the periphery (tho maybe close enough for a surprise poll)
