One way of evaluating the success of phase one is to judge it relative to its own targets -- and it is clearly falling short there.
Another is to look and see if US exports to China are doing especially well relative to others (i.e. has trade been diverted toward the US).
1/3
Another is to look and see if US exports to China are doing especially well relative to others (i.e. has trade been diverted toward the US).
1/3
I had to fill in the Jan and Feb data* but there isn't any real sign that rising U.S. exports of meat to China have come at the expense of other exporters. Everyone is winning!
2/3
* assumed 2/3rds of Jan-Feb YTD = Jan, and countries shares were equal to their March share.
2/3
* assumed 2/3rds of Jan-Feb YTD = Jan, and countries shares were equal to their March share.
The categories here aren't identical (national data is oilseeds, aggregate is soybeans) and filling in Jan and Feb introduces a source of error, but there also isn't evidence that China has tilted its soy purchases toward the U.S.
3/3
3/3
Concerns that the phase one deal would come at the expense of U.S. allies were totally legitimate, but on the ag side, there isn't yet evidence that this has played out ...
(which the Trump administration could interpret at failure, as diversion was in a sense the point)
(which the Trump administration could interpret at failure, as diversion was in a sense the point)
