THREAD: The LINCOLN PROJECT EFFECT, Polling & Townhall update from @projectlincoln Political Ops Directr @LucasHoltz__ & me: Trump's losing GOP support nationwide. The conservative-friendly Rasumussen polling shows that Trump earns only 75% support among his fellow Republicans.
Since ‘Mourning in America’ @projectlincoln has released a stream of ads targeted at the president’s shortcomings w/race relations, betrayal of American servicemen & women & failed response to Covid.
TLP has had a central role in driving 7% spike in Trump's disapproval since May
TLP has had a central role in driving 7% spike in Trump's disapproval since May
Trump disapproval’s w/ @ProjectLincoln ad releases. Of course, this isn’t all @ProjectLincoln driving negatives (Covid, economic crash, race relations, etc...) BUT tremendous social media reach is driving a national narrative - That’s YOU LP ARMY! 
Battleground state breakdowns have revealed enormous shifts in TLP persuadable voter groups against Trump & towards Biden. Biden’s lead is mostly attributed to a large shift in women, college & non-college white voters, & voters over 65.
Among white voters w/college degrees in battleground states, Biden holds a 55-34 lead, & Trump is losing among white voters in the three Northern battleground states.
Among women, Biden is leading in every battleground state: AZ: +17; FL: +15; MI: +21; NC: +20; PA: +18; WI: +13
Among women, Biden is leading in every battleground state: AZ: +17; FL: +15; MI: +21; NC: +20; PA: +18; WI: +13
Among white women with a college degree, Biden is leading by 39 pts in battleground states. Democrats lost them by 2 pts in 2016.
Among 65+ voters, Biden leads by 6 pts in battleground states. No democrat has won with 65+ voters in over 2 decades. Trump won 65+ by 6 pts in 2016.
Among 65+ voters, Biden leads by 6 pts in battleground states. No democrat has won with 65+ voters in over 2 decades. Trump won 65+ by 6 pts in 2016.
Arizona:
B/w the uploads of ‘Mourning in America’ (5/4) & ‘Bounty’ (6/27) to our YouTube channel, Trump’s polling avg fell from 45.1% to 42.9% in AZ
In the Senate race Kelly's lead over McSally solidified at 7-8pts. McSally’s #'s have consistently dropped at below 40% since May.
B/w the uploads of ‘Mourning in America’ (5/4) & ‘Bounty’ (6/27) to our YouTube channel, Trump’s polling avg fell from 45.1% to 42.9% in AZ
In the Senate race Kelly's lead over McSally solidified at 7-8pts. McSally’s #'s have consistently dropped at below 40% since May.
Michigan:
B/w May & June Trump’s polling avg fell from 42.6% to 39.9%. Biden increased his lead to 10.6pts.
In the Senate race, the same voters who are fleeing Trump -- our target voters -- are giving Senator Peters an advantage. Peters polling b/w 5 & 10 pts ahead of challenger
B/w May & June Trump’s polling avg fell from 42.6% to 39.9%. Biden increased his lead to 10.6pts.
In the Senate race, the same voters who are fleeing Trump -- our target voters -- are giving Senator Peters an advantage. Peters polling b/w 5 & 10 pts ahead of challenger
Pennsylvania:
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 43.7% to 42.5%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 49.5% to 50.5%, stretching his lead in the state to eight points.
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 43.7% to 42.5%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 49.5% to 50.5%, stretching his lead in the state to eight points.
Florida:
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 45% to 42.1%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 47.6% to 49.3%, stretching his lead in the state to just over six points.
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 45% to 42.1%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 47.6% to 49.3%, stretching his lead in the state to just over six points.
Wisconsin:
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 45.1% to 41.4%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 47.5% to 49.4%, stretching his lead in the state to about eight points.
Between early May and late June, Donald Trump’s polling average has fallen from 45.1% to 41.4%, while Joe Biden’s has increased from 47.5% to 49.4%, stretching his lead in the state to about eight points.
North Carolina:
B/w early May & late June, Trump’s avg declined & remained within MOE of Biden’s 3% lead.
In the Senate Race, Tillis has seen his surefooted lean R status evaporate as Trump drags the party down. Cunningham’s average lead since early May has hovered around 3%.
B/w early May & late June, Trump’s avg declined & remained within MOE of Biden’s 3% lead.
In the Senate Race, Tillis has seen his surefooted lean R status evaporate as Trump drags the party down. Cunningham’s average lead since early May has hovered around 3%.
his targeted message away from these overlapping Republican & Ind. voters in order to placate his base. He can no longer go after the middle b/c he is so beholden to the extreme wing of his base. This is, effectively, The #LincolnProjectEffect
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