I see Joe Gagnon has his manipulation tracker up, and he is certainly right to highlight Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan.
But the country that has the strongest case for meeting all three criteria in 2019 is Vietnam
cfr.org/article/tracki…
But the country that has the strongest case for meeting all three criteria in 2019 is Vietnam
cfr.org/article/tracki…
Current account surplus clocked in at around 5% of GDP, intervention at around 8% of GDP, obviously has a big bilateral surplus
It isn't really an ambiguous case, though i guess Treasury could try to give Vietnam a pass on the grounds it still needs more reserves
It isn't really an ambiguous case, though i guess Treasury could try to give Vietnam a pass on the grounds it still needs more reserves
One other observation -- China has shifted the locus of its foreign asset accumulation over to its state banks, who have growing bond holdings as well as growing loans (wish I knew how CDB and China Exim raised dollars ... )
If you include those, China isn't quite as clear cut a case as @GagnonMacro argues -- though with China defining the "right" perimeter of the state for these purposes is hard.
But even with a broader definition of official assets, China wouldn't cross Treasury threshholds
But even with a broader definition of official assets, China wouldn't cross Treasury threshholds
