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Recent cases of 2nd full blown COVID infection (fever, low oxygen saturation) among some people who had moderate cases (low oxygen but never on ventilators) back in March

Really makes me think COVID is like a genetic roulette.
Also People are so afraid of 737max with a fatality rate <<0.0001%,and yet they are not hesitant to catch COVID which is several orders of magnitude more lethal.

Effective brain-washing ?
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Barton
@Barton_options
1/ Fallacy of applying population fatality rate to an individual.

Bad statistics. —> bad decision making

Assuming that 3month into the future, the infection fatality rate of COVID19 for 30-45yo male in the US turns out to be 0.6%, does that mean the risk of dying...
For someone in that age group, like me, is truly 0.6%?

Absolutely not, unless I have the average genetic make up and the average health of American men (nobody has that)

My risk is probably a lot higher or a lot lower depending on my actual genetic make up.
3/ an example here.

According to ZOCOR ( a statin med to lower cholesterol) insert, risk of having myopathy (muscle cramp, pain, rhabdo) is 0.08% at 40mg/day. that’s a number for an average American.

But for me, that risk is 60-80%. MyMom had myopathy on zocor.
Read 7 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
1/ In case that you missed it... and let's talk about TGA
2/ The official reason for TGA to go parabolic was that Treasury desired to encumber the debt ceiling with extra 2T for CARES act spending.

They could have done it over 6-9 months. They chose to rush it by July 2nd after the TBAC target was published at the beginning of May.
3/ What the treasury did was to issue new tenors of Tbills (6-, 15-, 17-, 22-week, 30-40Bn each tenor for every week and $20-25Bn 9-month tenor once every month).

This was communicated to the Fed, which was part of the reason Fed had to do 80(UST)+40(MBS)Bn QE every month
Read 7 tweets
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Barton
@Barton_options
1/ US vs. Brazil, daily new COVID cases & death(from worldometers.info)

The naive interpretation:
US is getting much better! (death/case ratio)
Our treatment rocks!
COVID is getting weaker!

(! used as excited it-has-finally-turn-into-flu bros and sis insist) /s
2/ faulty assumptions in the naive analysis:

1. daily new case # accurately reflects daily new symptomatic COVID patients, without realizing that (a) lack of test kits in the US in march pushed the actual peak (red) later) (b) many tests were reported 5-8 days late
3/ 2. daily death # is not revised up later (death # gets revised in CDC reports and many state reports)

3. age distribution of COVID new cases remains constant.
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